长江流域资源与环境 >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (3): 588-595.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202003006

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市建设用地规模的经济增长效应——基于非线性STR模型的实证

匡  兵,卢新海*,韩  璟   

  1. (华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430079)
  • 出版日期:2020-03-20 发布日期:2020-03-20

Economic Growth Effect of Urban Construction Land Scale: Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model

KUANG Bing, LU Xin-hai, HAN Jing   

  1. (College of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Online:2020-03-20 Published:2020-03-20

摘要: 摘  要:以中国1982~2016年数据为研究样本,利用非线性平滑转换回归模型探讨了城市建设用地规模对经济增长的影响效应。结果表明:(1)中国城市建设用地规模与经济增长之间存在明显的非线性特征,以滞后两阶的经济增长作为转换变量建立非单调类转换函数模型最为恰当;(2)当转换变量介于临界值30 542.404 43亿元和37 595.594 26亿元之间时,转换函数为0,模型完全表现为线性形式,当转换变量等于临界值时,转换函数为0.5,城市建设用地规模与经济增长的关系从线性机制转换为非线性机制的速度一般;(3)当转换变量小于30 542.404 43亿元或者大于37 595.594 26亿元时,转换函数值迅速向1转换,城市建设用地规模对经济增长的非线性影响就会显现

Abstract: Abstract:This paper discussed the effect of urban construction land scale on economic growth based on the nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model and data of China from 1982 to 2016. The results showed that: (1) There is an obvious nonlinear feature between China’s urban construction land scale and economic growth. It is most appropriate to establish a non-monotonic transfer function model by using two-order economic growth as a transition variable. (2) When the transition variable is between the critical value of 30 542.404 billion yuan and 375 595.954 billion yuan, the transfer function is 0 and the model is completely linear. When the transition variable is equal to the critical value, the transfer function is 0.5 and the relationship between the scale of urban construction land and economic growth is converted from a linear mechanism to a nonlinear mechanism. (3) When the transition variable is less than 30 542.404 billion yuan or more than 37 595.594 26 billion yuan, the value of transition function is rapidly converted to 1, and the nonlinear impact of urban construction land scale on economic growth will appear. At this time, the scale of urban construction land changes by 1%, which will cause current economic growth of 1.829 03%. 

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 解晓南,许朋柱,秦伯强. 太湖流域苏锡常地区地面沉降若干问题探析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(1): 125 -131 .
[2] 黄应生,,陈世俭,吴后建,,朱明勇,. 洪湖演变的驱动力及其生态保护对策分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(4): 504 .
[3] 曹银贵,王 静,程 烨,刘爱霞,许 宁,郝 银,饶彩霞. 三峡库区土地利用变化与影响因子分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(6): 748 .
[4] 王宜虎. 江苏沿江各市工业绿色化程度的模糊评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(2): 170 .
[5] 梅 艳, 刘友兆, 梁流涛. 基于相对承载力的区域可持续发展研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(3): 341 .
[6] 龙开胜, 陈利根, 李明艳. 工业化、城市化对耕地数量变化影响差异分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 579 .
[7] 李春华,李 宁,史培军. 基于SOM模型的中国耕地压力分类研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 318 .
[8] 佘之祥. 长江三角洲的发展与外向型经济[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(2): 152 -156 .
[9] 李加林,许继琴,童亿勤,杨晓平,张殿发. 杭州湾南岸滨海平原土地利用/覆被空间格局变化分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 709 -713 .
[10] 胡明秀, 胡 辉, 王立兵. 武汉市工业“三废”污染状况计量模型研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(4): 470 -474 .