长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (4): 782-795.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202104002

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

极化与扩散:长三角在区域均衡发展中的作用——来自长三角与长江中游城市群的证据

周  磊,孙宁华,缪烨峰*,张舒蕾   

  1. (南京大学经济学院,江苏 南京 210093)
  • 出版日期:2021-04-20 发布日期:2021-05-17

Polarization Effect and Spread Effect:the Role of the Yangtze River Delta in Regional Balanced Development: Evidence from Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

ZHOU Lei, SUN Ning-hua, MIAO Ye-feng, ZHANG Shu-lei   

  1. (School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
  • Online:2021-04-20 Published:2021-05-17

摘要: 从长三角一体化视角出发,使用Dagum基尼系数分解,经济增长的空间外部性理论模型,空间滞后计量模型(SAR)等方法考察了长三角与长江中游两大城市群均衡发展的演化趋势,分析了长三角城市群的极化-扩散效应对长江中游城市群经济增长以及区域均衡发展的促进作用。研究表明:(1)长三角的一体化进程并未扩大其与长江中游的发展水平差距,事实上,两大城市群“组间差异”的缩小是区域均衡发展的主要推动力,而 “组内差异”缩小的影响则相对微弱。(2)长三角城市群对长江中游城市群的扩散效应大于极化效应,即长三角通过正向的空间溢出效应促进了长江中游经济发展,缩小了两地的发展水平差距,但如果忽略长江中游内部的空间相关性则会明显高估长三角的扩散效应。(3)长江中游内部的均衡发展水平越高,越有助于长三角扩散效应的充分发挥。(4)长三角不同城市的扩散效应受经济规模、产业结构等因素与地理距离的交互作用,呈现出非线性模式。

Abstract: Based on the perspective of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, this paper examines not only the evolutionary trend of the balanced development of the two major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, but also the promoting role of the polarization-spread effect of the Yangtze River Delta in affecting the economic growth of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and regional balanced development, when using the Dagum’s Gini coefficient decomposition, the spatial externality theoretical model of economic growth, and the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR). The study draws four key conclusions: (1) The integration process of the Yangtze River Delta has not expanded the remaining gap in the development level of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In fact, the narrowing of the “gap between groups” of the two urban agglomerations is the main driving force for balanced regional development, while the effect of narrowing “internal differences” is relatively weak. (2) The spread effect of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration on the middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration is greater than the polarization effect, which means that the positive spatial spillover effects in the Yangtze River Delta provides a significant boost to the economic development of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and narrows the gap in development levels between the two major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, thereby promoting balanced development. Nevertheless, with the spatial correlation of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River being ignored, the diffusion effect of the Yangtze River Delta will be significantly overestimated. (3) The estimates imply that the higher the level of balanced development in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the more it will help the Yangtze River Delta’s spread effect to be fully realized. (4) Finally, we finds that the spread effect of different cities in the Yangtze River Delta is tied into the interaction of factors such as economic scale, industrial structure and geographical distance, presenting a nonlinear mode.

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