长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (4): 976-991.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202104020

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

1900~2018年全球自然灾害时空演变特征与相关性研究

吴金汝,陈芳* ,陈晓玲   

  1. (武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079)
  • 出版日期:2021-04-20 发布日期:2021-05-17

Temporal and Spatial Features and Correlation Studies of Global Natural Disasters from 1900 to 2018

WU Jinru, CHEN Fang,CHEN Xiaoling   

  1. (State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Online:2021-04-20 Published:2021-05-17

摘要: 全球紧急灾难数据库EM-DAT(Emergency Events Database,简称EM-DAT)中1900~2018年的自然灾害数据,综合趋势检验及突变点检测方法、标准差椭圆空间统计方法,探究灾害的时空分布、演变趋势及不同灾害之间的相关性。结果表明: (1)洪水、干旱和风暴的危害性较大。其中,洪水发生次数最多,干旱造成的死亡人数最多,风暴造成的经济损失最为惨重;(2)从时间上来看,灾害发生次数先增加后稍有减少,总体呈上升趋势;因灾死亡人数则自1932年后大幅度减少,呈下降趋势;灾害经济损失持续增加,呈上升趋势;(3)从空间上来看,灾害发生次数分布格局呈南北方向扩张、东西方向收缩趋势,整体往东南方向移动;灾害死亡人数空间分布先呈现西北-东南分布格局,后转变成西南-东北格局,且这种格局不断弱化,直到最后重新呈现西北-东南分布格局;灾害经济损失重心东西方向移动距离大于南北方向,经济损失主方向总体向西北方向转移;(4)洪水、风暴、地震、流行病、滑坡5种灾害与所有灾害均呈显著正相关,相关性系数都达到0.57以上,相互作用较强,其中,地震与风暴两种灾害间的相关性系数最高(为0.906)。

Abstract: Based on natural disaster data from 1900 to 2018 in the Global Emergency Disaster Database EM-DAT (EM-DAT), the trend test methods and space statistical methods were used to explore the temporal and spatial features and correlation of global natural disasters. The results show that: (1) Floods, droughts and storms are the most harmful. Floods occur most frequently, droughts cause the most deaths, and storms cause the most economic losses; (2) The frequency of disasters increased first and then decreased slightly, showing an overall upward trend; the number of deaths due to disasters decreased significantly after 1932,  showing a downward trend; economic losses from disasters continued to increase, showing an overall upward trend; (3) The disaster frequency pattern shows a tendency to expand in the north-south direction and shrink in the east-west direction, and has the trend moving to the southeast; The number of disaster deaths first showed a “northwest-southeast” distribution pattern, and then transformed into a “southwest-northeast” pattern, and this pattern continued to weaken until finally it reappeared the “northwest-southeast” pattern; The average center of disaster economic loss has a greater distance in the east-west direction than in the north-south direction, and has the trend moving to the northwest; (4) Floods, storms, earthquakes, epidemics, and landslides are significantly positively correlated with all disasters, with correlation coefficients above 0.57. Among them, the correlation coefficient between earthquakes and storms is the highest (0.906).

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