长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (12): 2597-2607.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202212004

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

工业部门低碳化驱动因素与脱钩路径分析——以安徽省为例

沈  叶1,刘中侠1,邓翠翠1,王  迪2*   

  1. (1.铜陵学院财税与公共管理学院, 安徽 铜陵 244000;2.中国矿业大学管理学院, 江苏 徐州 221116)
  • 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2023-01-13

Analysis of Driving Factors and Decoupling Path of Low-carbonization on Industrial Sector: A Case Study of Anhui Province

SHEN Ye1, LIU Zhong-Xia1,  DENG Cui-Cui1, WANG Di2   

  1. (1. School of Finance, Taxation and Public Administration, Tongling University, Tongling 244000,China; 2. School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116, China)
  • Online:2022-12-20 Published:2023-01-13

摘要: 减少工业部门碳排放是实现中国碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键路径之一。为识别工业碳排放的影响因素及其减排贡献,厘清工业部门碳排放与经济发展间的脱钩路径,以2006~2019年安徽省工业碳排放为例,集成C-D生产函数、LMDI模型与Tapio解耦模型量化评估了工业部门的低碳化驱动因素及其脱钩路径。结果表明:(1)考察期内安徽省工业部门碳排放累计净增 1 076.70 万t,碳排放总量呈阶段性变化并在2013与2016~2018年实现了减排效果。(2)工业部门投资与工业技术水平导致了安徽省工业部门碳排放的快速增长,而能源强度的减排作用最为显著,能源结构、经济结构和劳动力投入在一定程度上抑制了工业CO2排放,特别是劳动力投入呈现先促进后抑制的变化趋势。(3)安徽省工业CO2排放与经济发展间的脱钩状态有4种:弱解耦(2008~2012和2014~2015年)、强解耦(2013和2016~2018年)、扩张耦合(2006~2007年)和扩张负解耦(2019年);抑制脱钩因素有技术水平和资本投入;促进脱钩因素有能源强度和经济结构;其中能源结构和劳动力逐渐由抑制脱钩转变为促进脱钩,且劳动力投入因素变化最为显著。实现安徽省工业CO2减排,建议进一步优化能耗结构与经济结构,提升能源强度和劳动力投入水平,并逐步转变安徽省工业经济发展模式,提高工业技术水平及其资本利用效率。

Abstract: Reducing CO2 emissions from the industrial sector is one of the key paths to achieving China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. In order to enrich the identification of influencing factors of industrial CO2 emissions and the contribution of each influencing factor to the elasticity of decoupling between industrial CO2 emissions and economic development, taking Anhui Province as an example and combining with the C-D production function, this paper quantitatively evaluates the main factors of CO2 emissions in the industry sector from 2006 to 2019 based on the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI model, and analyses the decoupling state between CO2 emission and economic growth, proposing energy efficiency policies accordingly. The results show that: (1) From the time dimension, except for 2013 and 2016-2018, the emission reduction effect was achieved, and the other years were not achieved. (2) Energy intensity suppressed industrial CO2 emissions, with the largest emission reduction in 2011. Technology level and capital investment promote industrial CO2 emissions. Energy structure, economic structure and labor input suppressed industrial CO2 emissions to a certain extent, especially labor input showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. (3) There are four decoupling states between industrial CO2 emissions and economic development in Anhui Province: weak decoupling (2008-2012 and 2014-2015), strong decoupling (2013 and 2016-2018), expansion coupling (2006-2007) and expansion negative decoupling (2019). The factors that inhibit decoupling include technology level and capital investment; the factors that promote decoupling include energy intensity and economic structure; the energy structure and labor force gradually change from inhibiting decoupling to promoting decoupling, and the factors of labor input change most significantly. Therefore, the Anhui province should optimize the energy consumption structure and allocation, adheres to the “double control” goal of the realization of energy consumption intensity and total CO2 emissions. At the same time, it must transform the mode of industrial economic development, and develop towards green and intensive industries gradually.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 马剑锋, 佟金萍, 王慧敏, 王 圣. 长江经济带农业用水全局技术效率的空间效应研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(12): 2757 -2765 .
[2] 谢贤鑫 陈美球 . 农户生态耕种采纳意愿及其异质性分析—基于TPB框架的实证研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, , (): 0 .
[3] 汪聪聪, 王益澄, 马仁锋, 王静敏. 经济集聚对雾霾污染影响的空间计量研究——以长三角洲地区为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(01): 1 -11 .
[4] 邢璐平, 方斌, 向梦杰, . 基于GWR模型的江苏省耕地集约利用水平时空变化特征及影响因素[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(02): 376 -386 .
[5] 阮甜, 查芊郁, 杨茹, 高超. 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江寸滩站以上流域径流的影响[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(02): 407 -415 .
[6] 邵祎婷, 何毅, 穆兴民, 高鹏, 赵广举, 孙文义, . 秦巴山区降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(02): 416 -425 .
[7] 刘宇, 赵亮, . 基于过程—效应—功能—服务级联机制的森林减沙服务传输研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(04): 883 -892 .
[8] 刘帅, 何青, 谢卫明, 郭磊城, 沈芳. 近15年来长江口控制站徐六泾悬沙变化特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(05): 1197 -1204 .
[9] 张陈俊 吴雨思 庞庆华 石常峰. 长江经济带用水量时空差异的驱动效应研究:基于生产和生活视角[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, , (): 0 .
[10] 罗燊, 余斌, 张向敏. 乡村生活空间网络结构特征与优化——以江汉平原典型乡建片区为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(07): 1725 -1735 .