关键词: 鼎城区, 农业旱灾, 脆弱性评价, 变化, 原因

Abstract: It is the combined action of the lack or uneven allocation of precipitation and the vulnerability of the agricultural productive system that leads to agricultural drought disaster. However, the vulnerability of hazardbearing body can “magnify” or “shrink” the losses of the drought. As a result, to alleviate the vulnerability of hazardbearing body is a principal and effective way to fight against calamities and to reduce the losses. Based on the study of Dingcheng District in the municipality of Changde, Hunan Province, it is found that the amounts and the allocations of the precipitation of two years (1988 and 2001) are similar, in other words, the intensities of the hazards of the two years are similar, but the losses of the grain yield are different: the former's was higher while the latter's was lower. Having constructed an evaluating indexsystem including seven indexes, such as the index of the water deficit for the crop growing, the index of the irrigating convenience of the farmland, the index of the smoothness of the farmland, the index of the investment on the farmland, this paper evaluated the vulnerability of hazardbearing body in 1988 and 2001 respectively. The result showed that the vulnerability of hazardbearing body in 2001 had been distinctly cut down, when compared with that in 1988. Trying to analyze the causes, it was found that several measures like the adjustment of the crops makeup (properly increasing the proportion of the middleseason rice), the improvement of the farmland condition and the productivity, the raise of the ability of utilizing irrigating equipments had effectively reduced the vulnerability of hazardbearing body, thereby had decreased the losses of the disaster. It provided a demonstration case for the theory that the vulnerability of hazardbearing body can “magnify” or “shrink” the losses of the drought when the intensities of the hazards are similar.

Key words: Dingcheng District, agricultural drought, vulnerability evaluating, variety, causes