关键词: 农业资源, 农业结构, 灰色系统, 优化

Abstract: Aiming at the present utilization state of agricultural resources in redsoil hilly area of south China, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the agriculture resource and the state of agricultural structure in Taojiang county, Hunan province. According to the statistics of Taojiang county, the authors quantitatively analyzed the influence on agricultural gross output value caused by the output value change of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery by applying gray incidence analysis. The array of gray incidence degree from 1950 to 2000 was: Farming (0.887 5) > Animal husbandry (0.760 2) >Fishery \{(0.675 6)\} >Forestry (0.543 3). The result indicted Farming and Animal husbandry were main factors to cause the change of agriculture gross output value. By gray method (1,1), the gross and individual output values of agriculture from 2001 to 2005 were predicted. Based on the result, this paper worked out gray incidence degree: Farming (0.611 3) >Fishery（0.358 7）>Forestry (0.347 6) > Animal husbandry0.334 7. By comparing the two arrays, the potential industry could be clearly concluded.In combination with agricultural resources and the developing trend of agricultural industry, the authors brought forward the optimizing direction of agricultural structure in Taojiang county.

Key words: agricultural resources, agricultural structure, gray system, optimization