关键词: 人均生态足迹, 人均生态承载力, 可持续发展, 城市化, 南京市

Abstract: Based on the data from Nanjing statistical yearbooks, a variety of the ecological footprint indicators, including per capita ecological footprints, per capita ecological carrying capacities and ecological deficits of the Nanjing region in the period from 1992 to 2002 was calculated in this study, by the use of corresponding methodology. Furthermore, dynamic changes of the indicators mentioned above during the past 11 years were analyzed. First of all, the data obtained indicated that, the per capita ecological footprint of the Nanjing region was much higher than the average of Jiangsu Province, and even 1 time higher than nation level of China measured in 1997. Meanwhile, the ecological carrying capacity of the Nanjing region was comparatively much lower, and the ecological deficit in the year 2002 even reached the area 20 times bigger than Nanjing territory. The figure of the per capita ecological footprint was already beyond the global ecological critical value 2.0 hm2 per capita, suggesting a great pressure on the local natural resources and ecosystem and a serious challenge to Nanjing regional sustainable development. And, along with rapid local economic growth driven by urbanization and industrialization, the ecological footprint and ecological deficit kept increasing, while the ecological carrying capacity was decreasing in the Nanjing region during the period from 1992 to 2002. For a better future of sustainable development, therefore, the strategic measures such as highefficiency utilization of energy sources, environmentalfriendly development of natural resources, effective control of population growth, and persistent conservation of arable lands as well should be carried out. The gray model was used to predict the average ecological footprints and ecological carrying capacities from 2003 to 2005. The results were credible.

Key words: ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, sustainable development, urbanization, Nanjing City