关键词: 耕地资源/ 粮食安全/ 影响因素/ 安徽省

Abstract:

Based on the statistical data over the past 30 years (1978~2007)，〖JP〗the dynamic change of cultivated land in 〖JP2〗Anhui Province was quantitatively analyzed by using the 〖JP〗statistical method.The methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used for discussing the relationship between the cultivated land change and food security.The results indicates that:（1）The total area of cultivated land and per capita cultivated land has a decreasing trend year after year basically.The average decrement rate per year of the total area and per capita cultivated land is 0.24% and 1.15% respectively.（2）The total and per capita grain output have increased trend year after year basically.But the fluctuation in them is also very remarkable，so delivery pressure of food security in Anhui Province is still higher in the future.（3）It is a significant correlative relationship between total grain yield and the grain yield of per hectare，multiple cropping index，also between the annual gradient of grain yield and cultivate area，planted grain area.The results of this paper can give some references for protection and utilization of cultivated land in Anhui Province.

Key words: cultivated land/ food security/ influencing factor/ Anhui Province