长江流域资源与环境 >> 2014, Vol. 23 >> Issue (08): 145-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201408001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

经济发达城市人口承载力预测及其经济合理性评价——以无锡市区为例

李平星,孙 伟   

  1. (中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏 南京 210008)
  • 出版日期:2014-08-20

POPULATION FORECAST AND EVALUATION ON ITS ECONOMIC RATIONALITY OF DEVELOPED CITIES: A CASE STUDY OF WUXI CITY

LI Pingxing, SUN Wei   

  1. (Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)
  • Online:2014-08-20

摘要:

在经济发达地区资源环境约束趋紧和经济发展转型背景下,开展人口规模预测研究对协调人口、资源、经济之间的关系具有积极意义。以无锡市区为例,核算土地资源人口承载力与不同时间阶段经济合理人口规模,分析土地资源人口承载量与经济合理人口规模之间的关系,解析未来人口发展趋势和影响因素。结果表明:无锡市区人口仍将稳步增加,外来人口仍将是常住人口增量的主体,但增速趋缓;2015、2020年经济合理人口分别约为404万和434万人,逐渐超出土地资源承载力所确定的402万人的合理人口规模;经济增长引起的就业人口的需求增长是导致人口总量增长的主要因素。未来需要通过产业结构调整、劳动生产率提升、公共服务设施完善等手段调控人口发展,以减轻资源环境压力和保障经济发展

Abstract:

Population is one of the key factors which affect regional economic and social development by influencing industrial and urban function, the amount and intensity of usage on water and land resources, and construction of traffic infrastructure and public service facilities The promotion of new urbanization, the construction of ecological civilization, and the transformation of economic development mode, make it a more important issue for regional population forecast Under the background of the resources and environmental constraints and the transformation of economic development, factors affecting the population development in economically developed areas tend to be more and more complicated Therefore, the related research is of significance for the enriching research on population forecast, coordinating the relationship among population, resource, and economic development Wuxi city is of the major constituent parts of core areas of Yangtze Delta which is one of the three most developed economic regions of China After thirty years highspeed economic development since Reform & Openingup, Wuxi city is bearing bigger and bigger resource and environmental pressure, and at the stage of speeding economic transformation Taking Wuxi city as the case area, the population forecast was carried out from the aspect of land carrying capacity Economic reasonable population forecast was performed using the EOPMM model The relationship between land carrying capacity and economic rational population was compared and the future population development trend was analyzed Results indicated that the rational population size was of about 402 million from the aspect of carrying capacity of land resources, and the economic reasonable population was about 404 and 434 million in the year of 2015 and 2020, respectively The carrying capacity of land resources would be overloaded gradually and the overloading ratio would be close to 8% at the year of 2020 However, the density of population would be 3 810 people per square kilometer in the year of 2020, which is smaller than that of municipal districts of Shanghai, total Shenzhen and Greater London The total population would constantly increase in the future, but the growth speed would slow down gradually Under the background of slow natural growth, floating population would still be the main parts of increased permanent resident population, and its proportion would increase steadily The proportions of increased floating population accounted for increased amount of total permanent resident population from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2010, 2010 to 2020 are 77%, 72% and 85%, respectively The proportion of floating population accounted for total permanent resident population would be 38% and 40%, which are close to that of Shanghai and Suzhou Increased supply of job opportunities caused by rapid economic growth would still be the main reason for the population growth The population increased with the growth of regional GDP, and the development of the second industry was of most closely correlation with population growth In summary, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on resources and environment and guarantee the economic development through measures for controlling population growth and optimizing population structure, such as adjusting the industrial structure, improving labor productivity, and ameliorating the public service facilities, etc

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