长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (6): 1127-1137.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202306002

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带碳排放与经济增长“脱钩陷阱”的识别与破解研究

赵菲菲,胡  政,赵  旭*,何伟军   

  1. (三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北 宜昌 443000)
  • 出版日期:2023-06-20 发布日期:2023-06-21

Identification and Solution of Decoupling Trap between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Yangtze River Economic Belt 

ZHAO Fei-fei, HU Zheng, ZHAO Xu, HE Wei-jun   

  1. (College of Economic and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China)
  • Online:2023-06-20 Published:2023-06-21

摘要: 为推动长江经济带城市碳排放与经济增长持续稳定脱钩,率先完成“双碳”目标的战略使命,基于脱钩理论并以脱钩路径为切入点,提出“脱钩陷阱”与“真伪脱钩”的概念与识别方法,将Tapio脱钩模型与Logit模型相结合,分析并检验2006~2019年长江经济带110个地级及以上城市碳排放与经济增长的“真伪脱钩”状态,进一步探究破除“脱钩陷阱”的主要驱动力。结果表明:(1)长江经济带110个城市主要呈现强脱钩与弱脱钩状态,扩张连接和增长负脱钩零星分布,整体脱钩状态较好,但脱钩状态存在空间异质性与时序波动性特征,黄石、湘潭等城市均出现复钩现象,陷入“脱钩陷阱”,呈现“伪脱钩”状态;(2)“真伪脱钩”城市存在显著地域性,“真脱钩”城市主要位于下游地区,且多为省会城市,陷入“脱钩陷阱”城市主要分布于中上游地区;(3)提升技术创新能力、优化集聚规模、加大外商直接投资等是城市实现内源性脱钩,避免落入“脱钩陷阱”的重要举措。

Abstract: In order to promote the continuous and stable decoupling of urban carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and take the lead in completing the strategic mission of “double carbon” goal, this paper puts forward the concepts and identification methods of “decoupling trap” and “decoupling authenticity”, and then combines the Tapio decoupling model with the Logit model to analyze and test the “decoupling authenticity” status of carbon emissions and economic growth in 110 prefecture-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2019, and explores the main driving forces to break the “decoupling trap”. The results show that: (1) The 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt mainly show strong and weak decoupling. The expansion connection and growth negative decoupling show sporadic distribution, and the overall decoupling state is good. However, the decoupling state has spatial heterogeneity and time series fluctuation characteristics. Huangshi, Xiangtan and other cities have a re-coupling phenomenon, falling into a “decoupling trap” and showing a “pseudo-decoupling” state. (2) “True and false decoupling” cities have significant regional characteristics, “true decoupling” cities are mainly located in the downstream areas, and most of them are provincial capitals, cities falling into the “decoupling trap” are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches. (3) Improving technological innovation capability, optimizing agglomeration scale and increasing foreign direct investment are important measures for cities to achieve endogenous decoupling and avoid falling into the “decoupling trap”.

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