长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (7): 1379-1397.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202307004

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带人口老龄化对服务业结构与效率影响的异质性研究

金巍1,2,张铭阳1*,沙勇1,2,3,周建芳3   

  1. (1.南京邮电大学社会与人口学院,江苏 南京 210023;2.南京邮电大学高质量发展评价研究院,江苏 南京 210023;3.南京邮电大学人口研究院,江苏 南京 210023)
  • 出版日期:2023-07-20 发布日期:2023-07-21

A Heterogeneous Study of Impact of Population Ageing on Structure and Efficiency of Service Industry in Yangtze River Economic Belt

JIN Wei1,2, ZHANG Ming-yang1, SHA Yong1,2,3, ZHOU Jian-fang3   

  1. (1. School of Sociology and Population Sciences, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China; 2. High-Quality Development Evaluation Institute, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing  210023, China; 3. Institute of Population Research, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China)
  • Online:2023-07-20 Published:2023-07-21

摘要: 人口是经济社会发展的重要支撑,人口老龄化对服务业的影响已成为高质量发展中不可回避的问题。基于2010~2020年长江经济带110个地级及以上城市的面板数据,从结构优化和产业效率两个视角探究了人口老龄化对服务业优化升级的影响,并对不同区域和不同老龄化速度下的异质性进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)人口老龄化对生产性服务业的比重与效率具有显著的正向影响,而对高端服务业比重具有显著的负向影响;(2)在长江经济带上游和下游地区,人口老龄化对生产性服务业比重和效率具有显著的抑制效应,对下游地区服务业效率的影响则显现正相关;(3)人口老龄化增速缓慢会对生产性服务业比重的增加产生更加显著的抑制作用,快速老龄化则会促进高端服务业比重的增加,并对生产效率产生一定影响。为此,亟需从供给和需求两个层面重视人口老龄化对长江经济带服务业结构与效率的影响,因地制宜地推动服务业高质量发展,加快技术成果的转化与应用。

Abstract: Population is an important support for economic and social development, and the impact of an ageing population on the service sector has become an unavoidable issue in quality development. Based on panel data of 110 cities at prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2020, the impact of population ageing on the optimization and upgrading of service industry from the perspective of structural efficiency, and the heterogeneity of different regions and at different rates of ageing is analysed. The results show that: (1) Population ageing has a significant positive impact on the producer services and efficiency enhancement of the service industry, while it has a significant negative impact on the high-end of the service industry. (2) The significant inhibiting effect on the producer services and efficiency improvement of the service industry is mainly concentrated in the upper and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while the positive effect on efficiency improvement is seen in the lower areas. (3) The slow growth rate of the ageing population will have a more pronounced deterrent effect on the producer services, while the accelerated ageing process will promote the development of the high-end of the service industry and have a certain impact on production efficiency. To this end, there is an urgent need to focus on the impact of the ageing population on the structure and efficiency of the service industry in the Yangtze River Economic belt at both the supply and demand levels, and to promote the high-quality development of the service sector in accordance with local conditions and the process of transformation and application of technological achievements.

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