长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (5): 1099-1109.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202405017

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

淮河生态经济带极端天气变化对粮食生产影响研究

郭利京,金娜*   

  1. (安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽 蚌埠 233030)
  • 出版日期:2024-05-20 发布日期:2024-05-29

Influence of Extreme Weather Events on Grain Production in Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt

GUO Li-Jing, JIN Na   

  1. (School of Economics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China)
  • Online:2024-05-20 Published:2024-05-29

摘要: 随着全球气候变化速度加快,高温、暴雨、干旱、低温等极端天气频发增加了农业气象灾害的发生频率,给粮食产量稳定供给带来了巨大的挑战。基于淮河生态经济带28个地市2001~2020年日气温、降雨气象数据和农业生产相关数据,利用广义最小二乘法(FGLS)研究淮河生态经济带极端天气变化及其对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:(1)从时间趋势上看,极高温日数(SU35)呈现增长趋势、极低温日数(FD5)呈现下降趋势,年际倾向率分别为1.85、-2.24 d/10a,暴雨日数(R50)以及最长连续无降水日数(CDD)年际变化趋势不明显;从空间区域分布上看,淮河生态经济带中西部地区极高温日数较多、北部地区极低温日数较多,暴雨日数呈现由东部向中西部再到北部地区减少的趋势、最长连续无降水日数呈现相反变动趋势。(2) 极端天气对粮食生产具有显著不利影响。极低温日数、极高温日数、最长连续无降水日数、暴雨日数每增加1%,粮食单产分别下降0.069%、0.021%、0.018%、0.008%。(3)极端天气对淮河生态经济带粮食生产影响具有区域异质性。极端天气主要影响中西部地区和北部地区的粮食生产,对东部地区粮食生产影响不显著。提出通过培育抗旱抗涝等作物新品种、提高极端天气变化监测能力、加强区域内政府间防灾减灾等协同联动、继续加强高标准农田建设等措施,维护淮河生态经济带粮食产量稳定。

Abstract: With the accelerated pace of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as high temperatures, heavy rains, droughts and low temperatures cause an increased frequency of agro-meteorological disasters, which  poses a huge challenge to the stable supply of grain production. Based on the daily temperature, rainfall meteorological and agricultural production data of 28 cities and municipalities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt from 2001 to 2020, this paper adopted the linear trend estimation and spatial Durbin model to study the extreme weather variations and the impacts on grain production. The results showed that: (1) The number of extremely high-temperature days (SU35) showed an increasing trend, the number of extremely low-temperature days (FD5) showed a decreasing trend, and the inter-annual tendency rate for SU35 and FD5 were 1.85 days/10a and -2.24 days/10a, respectively. However, the inter-annual trends of rainstorm days (R50) and the longest continuous days without precipitation (CDD) were not significant. The days of SU35 was higher in the central and western regions, while the days of FD5 was higher in the northern regions. The days of RD50 showed a decreasing trend from the east to the central and western regions, and then to the northern regions, while the days of CDD showed the opposite trend. (2) Extreme weather had significantly negative impacts on grain production. 1% increase in the days of FD5, SU35, CDD, and R50, resulted in a decrease of 0.069%, 0.021%, 0.018%, and 0.008% in grain production, respectively. (3) The impact of extreme weather on grain production was regionally heterogeneous. Extreme weather mainly affected grain production in the central and western regions and the northern region, while this impact in the eastern region was not significant. In the future, grain yields stability in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt can be maintained through measures of cultivating new crop varieties that are resistant to drought and flooding, improving the ability to monitor extreme weather changes, strengthening synergistic linkages among region governments, and continuing to maintain high-standard farmland.

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