基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

汉江流域未来的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响，将直接关系到南水北调工程和引江济汉工程的使用和效益。因此，分析研究汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点，可为地面调水、空中水资源开发、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护南水北调中线水源区的水资源提供科学依据。以1971～2000年为基准期，应用SWAT模型对汉江流域基准期内的逐月径流进行了模拟；在30 a基准期径流模拟的基础上,以全球变化背景下可能出现的25种不同气候变化模式为假设条件,模拟出各假设气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源状况，获得了各气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源相对于基准期的变化率，研究了汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应程度。结果表明：模型模拟精度高于评价标准（〖WTBX〗Ens>05，r2>06〖WTBZ〗），SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟；不同气候变化情景下,汉江流域径流变化较实际蒸散发的变化明显；降水对地表径流、基流的影响要大于气温；气温对实际蒸散发的影响大于降水;降水增加或气温降低都会导致径流增加,而降水增加或气温增加都会导致实际蒸散发的增加.

关键词: 汉江流域/SWAT/径流模拟/气候响应

Abstract:

Future climate changes and its influences on water resources in Hanjiang River basin concerns the exploitation and benefit of both SouthtoNorth water diversion and Han River project.Therefore, it is very important to analyze the characteristics of water resources in response to climate changes for providing scientific foundation to ground water diversion,exploiting water resources in the air,dealing adverse effect of climate changes and protecting the water sources areas in middle line of SouthtoNorth water diversion.Years 1971～2000 were set as the base period,and monthly runoffs were simulated using SWAT in the base period in Hanjiang River basin.Based on the accurate runoff simulation of the base period,the authors simulated each possible water resources situation under 25 climatechange scenarios according to the most possible climate change predictions in Hanjiang River basin.Change rates of water resources under 25 climatechange scenarios were obtained,and then hydrological responses of Hanjiang River basin to possible climate changes were studied.The result shows:the precision of SWAT simulation is higher than the criterion(〖WTBX〗Ens>05，r2>06〖WTBZ〗)after the calibration, and SWAT is applicable to simulate the runoff in Hanjiang River basin;under the 25 different climatechange scenarios,runoff changes are more obvious than evapotranspiration;surface runoff and base flow would be more sensitive to variations in precipitation than to variations in air temperature;evapotranspiration would be more sensitive to variations in air temperature than to variations in precipitation;when precipitation increases or air temperature decreases,the runoff would increase;when precipitation increases or air temperature increases,the evapotranspiration would increases.

Key words: Hanjiang River basin/ SWAT model/ runoff simulation/response to climate change

夏智宏, 周月华, 许红梅. 基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(2): 158-.

JIA Zhi-Hong, ZHOU Ru-Hua, HU Gong-Mei-. WATER RESOURCES RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGES IN HANJIANG RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(2): 158-.

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