长江流域资源与环境 >> 2011, Vol. 20 >> Issue (08): 918-.

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国三大产业电力消耗影响因素的分解分析

 |宁|徐菊艳   

  1. (1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044; |2.南京信息工程大学气象台, |江苏 南京 210044)
  • 出版日期:2011-08-20

DECOMPOSED ANALYSIS OF AFFECTING FACTORS ABOUT ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION OF THREE MAIN INDUSTRIES IN CHINA 

SUN Ning1| XU Juyan2   

  1. (1. Department of Atmospheric Science,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China|2.Meteorological Center,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China )
  • Online:2011-08-20

摘要:

基于改进的Kaya恒等式,将电力消耗的影响因素分解为经济增长、产业结构和电力强度,并采用LMDI法的时间序列分解方式研究了这些因素对我国三大产业2000~2007年电力消耗的影响轨迹。分解分析的结果表明:总体上经济增长、产业结构和电力强度因素均对三大产业的电耗增长具有推动作用,其中经济增长是各产业电耗增长的最主要原因,2000~2007年其贡献高达9365%。但是2006年以来产业结构和电力强度变化已显示出明显的节电效应,2006~2007年的产业结构调整使得电耗减少了74130亿kW·h,同期电力强度降低亦使电耗的减少量达1 64370亿kW·h。如果未来我国经济保持增长态势,那么电耗将持续增加,而大力发展清洁电力、优化产业结构和降低电力强度是我国电耗降低的主要途径。

Abstract:

Based on Kayaequation,the affecting factors of consumption of electric power were decomposed into economy growth,industry composition and intensity of electric power.And they were analyzed based on the time list decomposition way of LMDI method during 2000~2007.The outcomes of decomposed analysis show that economy growth,industry composition and intensity of electric power are all have some positive effect on the increase of consumption of electric power as a whole.And economy growth is the major factor causing the growth of consumption of electric power;its contribution attained 9365%.But since 2006,industry composition and intensity of electric power have been displaying some kind of electric power mitigation effect.During 2006~2007,74130 hundred million kWh had been reduced for the change of industry composition and 1 64370 hundred million kWh for the depress of intensity of electric power.Study results show that the consumption of electric power would increase if China′s economy keep developing,and adopting clean power,adjusting industry composition and reducing intensity of electric power are the main approach to make China′s consumption of electric power decrease

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 张 政, 付融冰| 杨海真, 顾国维. 水量衡算条件下人工湿地对有机物的去除[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 363 .
[2] 许素芳,周寅康. 开发区土地利用的可持续性评价及实践研究——以芜湖经济技术开发区为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(4): 453 -457 .
[3] 郝汉舟, 靳孟贵, 曹李靖, 谢先军. 模糊数学在水质综合评价中的应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(Sup1): 83 -87 .
[4] 程 江,何 青,王元叶,刘 红,夏小明. 长江河口细颗粒泥沙絮凝体粒径的谱分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(4): 460 -464 .
[5] 彭 建,景 娟,吴健生,蒋依依,张 源. 乡村产业结构评价——以云南省永胜县为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(4): 413 .
[6] 刘耀彬, 李仁东. 现阶段湖北省经济发展的地域差异分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 12 -17 .
[7] 蔡述明. 研究长江中游地区水资源开发利用的新成果[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 100 .
[8] 段学花 王兆印 余国安. 以底栖动物为指示物种对长江流域水生态进行评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(3): 241 -247 .
[9] 王宏巍. 俄罗斯土壤污染防治立法研究及其对构建我国《土壤污染防治法》的启示[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(4): 326 .
[10] 刘蓓蓓, 李凤英, 俞钦钦, 于洋, 毕军. 长江三角洲城市间环境公平性研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(12): 1093 .