长江流域资源与环境 >> 2013, Vol. 22 >> Issue (11): 1356-.

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于离散选择模型的水质改良非市场价值评估——以滇池为例

王赞信   

  1. (云南大学发展研究院|云南 昆明650091)
  • 出版日期:2013-10-20

ESTIMATING NONMARKET VALUE OF IMPROVED WATER QUALITY USING CHOICE MODELING——A CASE OF THE DIANCHI LAKE

WANG Zanxin   

  1. (School of Development Studies,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)
  • Online:2013-10-20

摘要:

非市场价值的评估是水质改良项目经济可行性分析或水生态破坏补偿决策必须考虑的难题。以滇池为例,通过问卷调查获得昆明市居民对滇池水污染的认识及对水质改良的选择数据,利用离散选择模型估计了滇池水质改良的非市场价值。结果表明,多数居民对水污染有较好的认识,居民选择水质改良的概率与家庭收入、目标水质、对生态影响的认识等有显著的正相关性,与水质改良的附加费、家中是否有小孩及在当地居住时间有显著的负相关性。居民户对四类水和三类水水质的支付意愿分别为42元/月和91元/月,或504元/a和1092元/a,分别占家庭年平均收入的011%和023%;算得滇池目前的水质改良到IV类和III类的非市场价值分别是6 91996万元/a和14 99324万元/a。可见,离散选择模型法通过对复杂的取舍关系进行分析,能在考虑多因素的基础上估算出水质改良的非市场价值,所得的信息可为水质改良决策提供参考依据

Abstract:

This paper employed a choice model to estimate the nonmarket value of improvements in the water quality of the Dianchi lake.A choice experiment study was administered to 310 randomly selected Kunming households and the data were analyzed using multinomial logit model.The results reveal that the probability of respondents’ option for water quality improvement had significant positive correlations with household income,targeted water quality level,and a recognized value of ecological improvement,and had significant negative correlations with water surcharge,the case of whether there were children in the surveyed household,and the years that the corresponds had lived in the current houses.The average willingness to pay per household for the improvement of water quality from the status quo to Level IV and III were estimated to be 42 and 91 Yuan per month,or 504 and 1092 Yuan per year,respectively.The average annual values for the two improvements in water quality were 692 million and 1499 million,accounting for 011% and 023% of average annual household income,respectively.The results could provide information for economic feasibility study of water quality improvement projects and for making decision for ecological damage compensation.It reveals that discrete choice model is a good tool for estimating the nonmarket value of water quality improvement as it can model complex tradeoffs.Further study can be carried out to explore the effects and implicit values of attributes other than water quality and surcharge

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