不同能源政策下苏浙沪能源消费碳排放高峰估计

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201701003

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (01): 15-25.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201701003

不同能源政策下苏浙沪能源消费碳排放高峰估计

黄蕊^1,2,3, 陆玉麒^1,2,3, 陆梦秋^1,2,3

1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏南京 210023;
2. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210023;
3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2016-06-08 修回日期:2016-08-28 出版日期:2017-01-20
通讯作者: 陆梦秋,E-mail:lumengqiu3201@163.com E-mail:lumengqiu3201@163.com
作者简介:黄蕊(1987~),女,博士,讲师,研究方向为环境经济和地理计算.E-mail:huangrui4420@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目（41430635）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目（2016M600429）；江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目（16KJB170003）

PROJECTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION CARBON EMISSION PEAK FOR JIANGSU, ZHEJIANG AND SHANGHAI UNDER DIFFERENT ENERGY POLICIES

HUANG Rui^1,2,3, LU Yu-qi^1,2,3, LU Meng-qiu^1,2,3

1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment for the Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2016-06-08 Revised:2016-08-28 Online:2017-01-20
Supported by:
Key program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41430635);Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2016M600429);General Program of Universities National Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(16KJB170003)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国要实现2030年左右达到CO₂排放峰值目标，最终要落实到区域层面上。长三角地区作为中国经济的领头羊，其节能减排政策制定对其它省区具有示范作用。基于经济平稳增长模型对江苏省、浙江省和上海市未来的能源消费碳排放量进行了估计，并模拟了不同能源政策情景对能源消费碳排放的影响。研究表明：（1）基准情景下，江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰分别出现在2034年、2033年和2032年。（2）不同的能源政策对碳高峰的影响不同。能源结构调整情景和能源效率提高情景下，江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰都能提前到2030年以前，完成2030年碳排放达到峰值的目标。综合能源政策情景模拟结果显示，同时调整能源结构和提高能源效率，碳减排效果更加明显。

关键词: 能源消费, 碳排放, 能源结构, 能效提高

Abstract: To achieve the target of peaked CO₂ emission around 2030, China eventually needs to implement the policies at the regional level. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the pioneer of China's economy, their energy conservation and emissions reduction policy plays a demonstration role for other provinces. Based on balanced economic growth model, in this paper we projected future energy consumption carbon emissions for Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, simulated carbon emissions trend under different energy policy scenarios, and compared the carbon emission reduction effect from energy consumption with the baseline scenario. The results show that:(1)under the benchmark scenario, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai's energy consumption carbon emissions peak appears in 2034, 2033 and 2032, respectively. (2)The impact of different energy policies on carbon peak is different. Under energy structure adjustment scenario and energy efficiency improvement scenarios, energy consumption carbon peak of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, appear before 2030, which could complete the target reaching carbon emissions peak in 2030. Comprehensive energy policy scenario simulation results show that while adjusting energy structure and improving energy efficiency, carbon emission reduction effect is more obvious.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emissions, energy structure, energy consumption efficiency

中图分类号:

F426.2

黄蕊, 陆玉麒, 陆梦秋. 不同能源政策下苏浙沪能源消费碳排放高峰估计[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(01): 15-25.

HUANG Rui, LU Yu-qi, LU Meng-qiu. PROJECTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION CARBON EMISSION PEAK FOR JIANGSU, ZHEJIANG AND SHANGHAI UNDER DIFFERENT ENERGY POLICIES[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(01): 15-25.

参考文献

[1] 李平星, 曹有挥. 产业转移背景下区域工业碳排放时空格局演变——以泛长三角为例[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(8):939-947. [LI P X, CAO Y H. Spatial and temporal changes of industrial carbon emissions under regional industrial transfer:the case of Pan-Yangtze River Delta[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(8):939-947.]
[2] 赵荣钦, 黄贤金. 基于能源消费的江苏省土地利用碳排放与碳足迹[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(9):1639-1649. [ZHAO R Q, HUANG X J. Carbon emission and carbon footprint of different land use types based on energy consumption of Jiangsu Province[J]. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(9):1639-1649.]
[3] 华坚, 任俊. 长三角地区碳排放的测度、比较及影响因素分析:1990-2009年[J]. 河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2012, 14(3):57-61. [HUA J, REN J. An analysis of measurement and factors of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 1990 to 2009[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2012, 14(3):57-61.]
[4] 叶懿安, 朱继业, 李升峰, 等. 长三角城市工业碳排放及其经济增长关联性分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(3):257-262. [YE Y A, ZHU J Y, LI S F, et al. Correlation analysis of industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(3):257-262.]
[5] 王圣, 王慧敏, 陈辉, 等. 基于Divisia分解法的江苏沿海地区碳排放影响因素研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(10):1243-1247. [WANG S, WANG H M, CHEN H, et al. Study on influence factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province coastal areas based on Divisia decomposition method[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(10):1243-1247.]
[6] 岳婷, 龙如银. 基于LMDI的江苏省能源消费总量增长效应分析[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(7):1266-1271. [YUE T, LONG R Y. Analysis of factors affecting the energy intensity growth in Jiangsu province based on LMDI[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(7):1266-1271.]
[7] 魏子清, 周德群. 基于LMDI分解的江苏省能源消费影响因素实证分析[J]. 价格月刊, 2009(2):51-54. [WEI Z Q, ZHOU D Q. Empirical Analysis on the influencing factors of energy consumption in Jiangsu province based on LMDI decomposition[J]. Prices Monthly, 2009(2):51-54.]
[8] 赵欣, 龙如银. 江苏省碳排放现状及因素分解实证分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(7):25-30. [ZHAO X, LONG R Y. The status and decomposition model of carbon emissions for Jiangsu province[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010, 20(7):25-30.]
[9] 田立新, 包森, 方国昌. 江苏省能源结构情景分析及碳排放研究[J]. 能源技术与管理, 2011(5):1-3. [TIAN L X, BAO S, FANG G C. Scenario analysis of energy structure and carbon emission in Jiangsu province[J]. Energy Technology and Management, 2011(5):1-3.]
[10] 叶晓佳, 孙敬水, 董立锋. 低碳经济发展中的碳排放驱动因素实证研究——以浙江省为例[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2011, 31(4):13-23. [YE X J, SUN J S, DONG L F. Empirical research on carbon emissions' driving factors in low-carbon economic development——an example of Zhejiang Province[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2011, 31(4):13-23.]
[11] 汪宏韬. 基于LMDI的上海市能源消费碳排放实证分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(5):143-146. [WANG H T. Logarithmic mean Divisia index model and the carbon emission mechanism of energy sector in Shanghai[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010, 20(5):143-146.]
[12] 杜运伟, 黄涛珍. 江苏省人口规模、结构对碳排放的影响分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(4):399-404. [DU Y W, HUANG T Z. Impact of demographic factors on carbon emission in Jiangsu province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(4):399-404.]
[13] 卢娜, 曲福田, 冯淑怡, 等. 基于STIRPAT模型的能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素——以江苏省苏锡常地区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(5):814-824. [LU N, QU F T, FENG S Y, et al. Trends and determining factors of energy consumption carbon footprint-an analysis for Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region based on STIRPAT model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(5):814-824.]
[14] 黄蕊, 王铮, 丁冠群, 等. 基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(4):781-789. [HUANG R, WANG Z, DING G Q, et al. Trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu province based on STIRPAT model[J]. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(4):781-789.]
[15] 梁洁, 史安娜, 朱恒金. 江苏省碳排放强度变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J]. 南京社会科学, 2013(5):143-148. [LIANG J, SHI A N, ZHU H J. An analysis on the trends of changes of carbon emission intensity and the influential factors in Jiangsu[J]. Social Sciences in Nanjing, 2013(5):143-148.]
[16] 翟石艳, 王铮. 基于ARDL模型长三角碳排放、能源消费和经济增长关系研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(1):94-103. [ZHAI S Y, WANG Z. Modeling relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption and economic growth by ARDL in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(1):94-103.]
[17] 李磊, 肖光年. 基于主成分回归的无锡碳排放量影响因素分析[J]. 城市发展研究, 2011, 18(5):9-12. [LI L, XIAO G N. Influential factors analysis of carbon emission in Wuxi city based on principal component regression[J]. Urban Studies, 2011, 18(5):9-12.]
[18] 盖美, 胡杭爱, 柯丽娜. 长江三角洲地区资源环境与经济增长脱钩分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(2):185-198. [GAI M, HU H A, KE L N. Decoupling analysis between economic development and resources and environmental of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(2):185-198.]
[19] 郑启伟, 何恒. 浙江省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素研究[J]. 环境科学与管理, 2015, 40(12):177-180. [ZHENG Q W, HE H. Analysis on decoupling and influencing factors between carbon emissions and economic growth in Zhejiang province[J]. Environmental Science and Management, 2015, 40(12):177-180.]
[20] 张秀梅, 李升峰, 黄贤金, 等. 江苏省1996年至2007年碳排放效应及时空格局分析[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(4):768-775. [ZHANG X M, LI S F, HUANG X J, et al. Effects of carbon emissions and their spatio-temporal patterns in Jiangsu province from 1996 to 2007[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(4):768-775.]
[21] 佘倩楠, 贾文晓, 潘晨, 等. 长三角地区城市形态对区域碳排放影响的时空分异研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(11):44-51. [SHE Q N, JIA W X, PAN C, et al. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban forms'impact on regional carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(11):44-51.]
[22] 徐昔保, 陈爽, 杨桂山. 长三角地区城市居民出行交通碳排放特征与影响机理[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(8):1064-1071. [XU X B, CHEN S, YANG G S. Characteristics and impact mechanism of carbon emission for urban residents' transport in the Yangtze River Delta, China[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2014, 23(8):1064-1071.]
[23] 杨上广, 王春兰, 刘淋. 上海家庭出行碳排放基本特征、空间模式及影响因素研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(6):148-153. [YANG S G, WANG C L, LIU L. Study on basic characteristics, spatial pattern and influence factors of Shanghai family commuting carbon emission[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(6):148-153.]
[24] 张钢锋, 李莉, 黄成, 等. 基于Urban-RAM模型的上海居民生活碳排放研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2014, 34(2):457-465. [ZHANG G F, LI L, HUANG C, et al. Carbon emissions of the household living in Shanghai using Urban-RAM model[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2014, 34(2):457-465.]
[25] 孙伟, 乌日汗. 长三角核心区碳收支平衡及其空间分异[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(12):2220-2228. [SUN W, WURIHAN. Study on the balance of carbon budget and its spatial differentiation in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(12):2220-2228.]
[26] 义白璐, 韩骥, 周翔, 等. 区域碳源碳汇的时空格局——以长三角地区为例[J]. 应用生态学报, 2015, 26(4):973-980. [YI B L, HAN J, ZHOU X, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of carbon sources and sinks in Yangtze River Delta region, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2015, 26(4):973-980.]
[27] 赵荣钦, 张帅, 黄贤金, 等. 中原经济区县域碳收支空间分异及碳平衡分区[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(10):1425-1437. [ZHAO R Q, ZHANG S, HUANG X J, et al. Spatial variation of carbon budget and carbon balance zoning of central plains economic region at county-level[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(10):1425-1437.]
[28] 聂锐, 张涛, 王迪. 基于IPAT模型的江苏省能源消费与碳排放情景研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9):1557-1564. [NIE R, ZHANG T, WANG D. The scenario analysis on energy consumption and carbon emissions based on environmental loads model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(9):1557-1564.]
[29] 刘慧, 张永亮, 毕军. 中国区域低碳发展的情景分析——以江苏省为例[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(4):10-18. [LIU H, ZHANG Y L, BI J. Scenario analysis of China's low-carbon development at local level-the case of Jiangsu Province[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(4):10-18.]
[30] 陶玉国, 黄震方. 区域旅馆业碳排放分类测度研究——以长三角为例[J]. 经济管理, 2013, 35(12):111-120. [TAO Y G, HUANG Z F. Study of measuring carbon dioxide emissions for regional classification accommodation——a case study of Yangtze River Delta[J]. Economic Management, 2013, 35(12):111-120.]
[31] 谢园方, 赵媛. 长三角地区旅游业能源消耗的CO₂排放测度研究[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(3):429-438. [XIE Y F, ZHAO Y. Measuring carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption by tourism in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(3):429-438.]
[32] 杨良杰, 吴威, 苏勤, 等. 江苏省交通运输业能源消费碳排放及脱钩效应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(10):1383-1390. [YANG L J, WU W, SU Q, et al. Carbon emissions of transportation energy consumption and its decoupling analysis in Jiangsu province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2014, 23(10):1383-1390.]
[33] 欧阳斌, 凤振华, 李忠奎, 等. 交通运输能耗与碳排放测算评价方法及应用——以江苏省为例[J]. 软科学, 2015, 29(1):139-144. [OUYANG B, FENG Z H, LI Z K, et al. Calculation and evaluation methodology of transport energy consumption and carbon emission——the case of Jiangsu Province[J]. Soft Science, 2015, 29(1):139-144.]
[34] 董智, 王世进. 江苏省碳排放量特征与对策研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(14):8253-8254. [DONG Z, WANG S J. Study on the characteristics and countermeasures of carbon emission in Jiangsu province[J]. Journal of Anhui Agriculture Science, 2012, 40(14):8253-8254.]
[35] 黄蕊, 王铮. 长三角地区城市平稳增长下能源碳排放需求估计[J]. 城市发展研究, 2012, 19(7):70-76. [HUANG R, WANG Z. Prediction on carbon emissions demand based on steady economic growth in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Urban Studies, 2012, 19(7):70-76.]
[36] 赵志凌, 黄贤金, 赵荣钦. 江苏低碳经济发展策略[J]. 唯实, 2011(1):66-68. [ZHAO Z L, HUANG X J, ZHAO R Q. Strategy of low carbon economy development in Jiangsu[J]. Weishi, 2011(1):66-68.]
[37] 蔡博峰, 王金南. 长江三角洲地区城市二氧化碳排放特征研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(10):45-52. [CAI B F, WANG J N. Analysis of the CO₂ emission performance of urban areas in Yangtze River Delta region[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(10):45-52.]
[38] 王铮, 刘晓, 黄蕊, 等. 平稳增长条件下中国各省市自治区的排放需求估算[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2013, 28(1):85-93. [WANG Z, LIU X, HUANG R, et al. Estimation of carbon emission requirements under balance growth in the Chinese provinces[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013, 28(1):85-93.]
[39] 林伯强, 孙传旺. 如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J]. 中国社会科学, 2011(1):64-76. [LIN B Q, SUN C W. How can China achieve its carbon emission reduction target while sustaining economic growth[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2011(1):64-76.]
[40] 程叶青, 王哲野, 张守志, 等. 中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(10):1418-1431. [CHENG Y Q, WANG Z Y, ZHANG S Z, et al. Spatial econometric analysis of carbon emission intensity and its driving factors from energy consumption in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(10):1418-1431.]
[41] 张乐勤, 李荣富, 陈素平, 等. 安徽省1995年-2009年能源消费碳排放驱动因子分析及趋势预测——基于STIRPAT模型[J]. 资源科学, 2012, 34(2):316-327. [ZHANG L Q, LI R F, CHEN S P, et al. Trend prediction and analysis of driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption during the period 1995-2009 in Anhui province based on the STIRPAT model[J]. Resources Science, 2012, 34(2):316-327.]
[42] 吴开亚, 郭旭, 王文秀, 等. 上海市居民消费碳排放的实证分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(5):535-543. [WU K Y, GUO X, WANG W X, et al. Empirical analysis on carbon emissions of residents consumption in Shanghai[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(5):535-543.]
[43] MOON Y S, SONN Y H. Productive energy consumption and economic growth:an endogenous growth model and its empirical application[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 1996, 18(2):189-200.
[44] 朱永彬, 王铮, 庞丽, 等. 基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(8):935-944. [ZHU Y B, WANG Z, PANG L, et al. Simulation on China's economy and prediction on energy consumption and carbon emission under optimal growth path[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(8):935-944.]
[45] 王铮, 朱永彬, 刘昌新, 等. 最优增长路径下的中国碳排放估计[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(12):1559-1568. [WANG Z, ZHU Y B, LIU C X, et al. Integrated projection of carbon emission for China under the optimal economic growth path[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(12):1559-1568.]
[46] GOLDSMITH R W. A perpetual inventory of national wealth[M]//NBER Book Studies in Income and Wealth. New York:National Bureau of Economic Research, 1951:5-61.
[47] 张军, 吴桂英, 张吉鹏. 中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J]. 经济研究, 2004(10):35-44. [ZHANG J, WU G Y, ZHANG J P. The estimation of China's provincial capital stock:1952-2000[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2004(10):35-44.]
[48] 张丽丽. 浙江省能源结构优化研究[D]. 杭州:浙江工业大学硕士学位论文, 2013. [ZHANG L L. Study on the optimization of energy structure in Zhejiang province[D]. Hangzhou:Master Thesis of Zhejiang Gongshang University, 2013.]
[49] 王刚, 徐园, 叶承晋. 浙江省终端能源结构演化进程分析[J]. 能源工程, 2015(1):26-30, 36. [WANG G, XU Y, YE C J. Analysis of the terminal energy structure evolution process in Zhejiang province[J]. Energy Engineering, 2015(1):26-30, 36.]
[50] 黄蕊, 朱永彬, 王铮. 上海市能源消费趋势和碳排放高峰估计[J]. 上海经济研究, 2010(10):81-90. [HUANG R, ZHU Y B, WANG Z. Prediction on Shanghai's energy consumption trend and carbon emission pink[J]. Shanghai Economic Review, 2010(10):81-90.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed