长江流域资源与环境 >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (12): 2878-2885.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201812024

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    

湖南省非一致性极端高温频率特征分析

王  磊1,2,贺新光1,2*,谭子芳1,刘  雯3   

  1. (1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南 长沙 410081;2. 湖南师范大学地理空间大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室,湖南 长沙 410081;3. 湖南城市学院信息与电子工程学院,湖南 益阳 413002)
  • 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2018-12-29

Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Extreme High Temperature in Hunan Province

WANG Lei1,2, HE Xin-guang1,2, TAN Zi-fang1, LIU Wen3   

  1. (1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China; 
    2. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Hunan Province, Changsha 410081, China; 
    3. College of Information and Electronic Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413002, China)
  • Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-29

摘要: 受气候变化和人类活动等因素影响,水文气象时间序列失去了一致性。以湖南省89个气象站点1960~2013年逐日气温资料为基础,选取年平均日最高温度(AMMT)和超过95th分位值的平均日最高温度(POT),研究非一致性条件下湖南省极端高温指数的频率特征。结果表明:湖南省89个站点中有59个站点(66.3%)的AMMT序列和23个站点(25.8%)的POT序列呈现显著的非一致性。利用线性矩法和Cramer-von Mises(C-M)检验等方法,发现广义正态分布(GNO)函数能较好地拟合研究区极端高温指数序列。通过还原途径修正非一致性序列,并对修正前、后不同重现期水平下的极端高温指数的估算值进行对比,发现气候变化条件下AMMT序列在湘北、湘中和湘东南地区呈现强度增强和重现期缩短的趋势,而POT序列仅在湘北和湘东南地区呈现出相似的频率特征变化。

Abstract: The time series of hydrometeorology has lost its consistency, because of the influences of climate change and human activities. Based on the daily temperature data during the period of 1960-2013 in 89 meteorological stations over Hunan Province, the annual mean maximum temperature (AMMT) and peak over threshold (POT) are selected to detect the inconsistent characteristics of the extreme high temperature indices. The results showed that there were significant inconsistencies in the AMMT series of 59 sites (66.3%) and the POT series of 23 sites (25.8%) out of 89 stations. The parameters of five extreme distributions GLO, GEV, GPA, GNO and PE3 are estimated by using the L-moments method. From the results of Cramer-von Mises (C-M) test, we found that the GNO distribution function can better fit the series of extreme high temperature indices in Hunan Province. The non-stationary series is modified by the reduction pathway. Based on the GNO model, we calculated the estimated return levels for both the modified and non-modified extreme series at different return periods and assessed the changes of the extreme series at three different return periods. Under the conditions of climate change, the AMMT series showed an enhanced trend of intensity and a shortened trend of the return period in north Hunan, central Hunan and southeast Hunan. However, the POT series showed similar frequency characteristics variation only in northern Hunan and southeastern Hunan.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 解晓南,许朋柱,秦伯强. 太湖流域苏锡常地区地面沉降若干问题探析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(1): 125 -131 .
[2] 聂 坚, 白永平, 孙 克, 王世金. “红三角”地区城镇体系结构分形研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(5): 673 .
[3] 陈永柏, 邓 云| 梁瑞峰. 溪洛渡水电站叠梁门取水方式减缓下泄低温水的优化调度[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(03): 340 .
[4] 罗固源, 杜娴, 许晓毅, 蔡文良, 曹佳, 舒为群. 邻苯二甲酸酯在长江重庆段水体的概率风险分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(1): 79 .
[5] 刘春霞, 李月臣, 杨华. 三峡库区(重庆段)石漠化敏感性评价及空间分异特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(3): 291 .
[6] 杨永生| 温天福| 刘聚涛. 基于用水总量控制的水资源承载能力分析研究——以赣江袁河流域为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2012, 21(03): 276 .
[7] 陈文静| 张燕萍| 赵春来| 王昌来. 近年长江湖口江段鱼类群落组成及多样性[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2012, 21(06): 684 .
[8] 张 群|张 雯|李飞雪,张 琳|杨云丽|李满春. 基于信息熵和数据包络分析的区域土地利用结构评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(8): 1149 .
[9] 李思思,张亮,杜耘,刘蜀治. 面源磷负荷改进输出系数模型及其应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(09): 1330 .
[10] 张玲玲, 王宗志, 李晓惠, 段文武. 总量控制约束下区域用水结构调控策略及动态模拟[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(01): 90 .