长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (8): 2015-2027.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202108022

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI指数的鄱阳湖流域近60 a干旱时空变化特征

谢坤1,3,丁明军1,2* ,张华敏1,陈利文1   


  1. (1.江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西 南昌 330022;2.鄱阳湖湿地与流域教育部重点实验室,
    江西 南昌 330022;3.豫章师范学院,江西 南昌 330103)
  • 出版日期:2021-08-20 发布日期:2021-09-06

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in Poyang Lake Basin in Recent Sixty Years Based on SPEI

XIE Kun 1,3, DING Ming-jun 1,2, ZHANG Hua-min 1,CHEN Li-wen 1   

  1. (1. School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Nanchang 330022, China; 3. Yuzhang Normal University, Nanchang 330103, China)
  • Online:2021-08-20 Published:2021-09-06

摘要: 量化研究干旱的时空变化特征,对区域干旱监测与抗旱减灾有重要的意义。基于鄱阳湖流域1961~2017年26个气象站点的观测数据,利用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)定量分析了该流域干旱的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域南湿北干,且四季差异明显。(2)鄱阳湖流域呈现显著湿润化趋势(p<0.05),四季均存在变湿趋势,且夏季、冬季变湿显著(p<0.05)。从空间格局上看,所有站点年尺度均存在变湿趋势,变湿幅度较大的站点分布在流域中北部;在季节尺度上,除春季赣江流域的西北部、饶河流域和信江流域东部部分站点,以及秋季个别站点(德兴、遂川和龙南)呈现干旱化趋势外,其余站点各季节均呈湿润化趋势,只是在变湿的幅度和显著水平上存在一定差异。(3)鄱阳湖流域不同等级干旱的发生存在明显的年代际差异。除20世纪90年代及最近10年干旱发生的频率较低外,其他年代干旱发生的频率均相对较高,尤其是20世纪60年代。(4)鄱阳湖流域SPEI指数与降水呈正相关,与气温呈负相关,且与降水的相关性较气温的相关性高。在全球尺度的海气作用的驱动下,该流域的干湿变化与厄尔尼诺现象/拉尼娜事件之间存在着一定的相关性,且具有半年的滞后效应。

Abstract: Quantitative research on the spatiotemporal variation of drought is of great significance for regional drought monitoring and disaster reduction. Using the meteorological observation data of 26 meteorological stations in Poyang lake basin from 1961 to 2017, spatiotemporal variation of drought is analyzed by means of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that: (1) The Poyang lake basin presents wet in the south and dry in the north, and obvious differences are showed in the four seasons. (2) The annual SPEI of Poyang lake basin shows a significant wetting trend(p<0.05).The four seasons presents a wetting trend, the summer and the winter rises notably(p<0.05). From the perspective of spatial variation, the annual scale of all the stations show a wetting trend, especially in the central and the north. The Poyang lake basin represents a wetting trend except for some stations in the northwest of Ganjiang basin and the eastern of Raohe basin and Xinjiang basin in spring and some individual stations (Dexing、Suichuan and Longnan) in autumn, but there are certain differences in the increase rate and the significant level. (3) There are significant inter-decadal differences in the occurrence of different levels of drought in Poyang lake basin. In addition to the low frequency of drought in the 1990s and the last decade, the frequency of drought in other decades were relatively frequent, especially in the 1960s. (4) The SPEI of Poyang lake basin is positively correlated with precipitation but is negatively correlated with temperature. The correlation between SPEI and precipitation is higher than that of temperature. The change of SPEI is driven by the global scale of Air-Sea Interaction, with a half year lag effect.

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