Abstract: Accurately monitoring and analyzing the dynamics of carbon emissions from grain cultivation is crucial for guiding the transformation of low-carbon agriculture, ensuring regional ecological balance and achieving sustainable development goals. In this paper, the life cycle method was used to measure the carbon emissions from grain planting in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Based on the functional production zoning of grain, the fairness was analyzed by using the dagum Gini coefficient. The change trend of carbon emissions from grain planting under the benchmark scenario from 2023 to 2030 was predicted based on STIRPAT extended model and scenario analysis. The results showed that: (1) The total net carbon sink of grain cultivation in the YREB showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2022, and a spatial pattern of “high in the north and low in the South”. (2) The overall fairness was fair and showed an improvement trend. Regional differences in carbon emissions were the main source of overall inequity. (3) Carbon emissions from grain planting in most provinces and cities of the YREB had reached the peak. (4) The carbon emission intensity of grain planting formed a pattern of main grain sales area>main grain production area>grain production and marketing balance area. The results provided suggestions for regional carbon control and emission reduction according to local conditions.