关键词: 协调发展, 系统动力学模型, 情景分析, 协调度分析, 贵阳

Abstract: The coordinated development of Guiyang City has aroused much concern especially with the implementation of the national Western Zone Development Strategy. In this paper, characteristics of the environmentaleconomic system for Guiyang city were analyzed. Four kinds of basic characteristics covering economy, population, technology and environment were presented. Then, a framework for the coordinated development strategy is proposed, in which methods of system dynamics (SD) model, scenario analysis and coordinated degree analysis are integrated. With its guidance, a SD model was built for Guiyang City. Five scenarios were also identified, considering the driving factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), resource, pollution and environmental protection facility. Accordingly, under these scenarios, prediction and coordinated degree analysis were conducted. Resting on repeated processes of simulation, feedback, adjustment and analysis, the fifth scenario was consequently identified as the optimum development mode. Corresponding principal strategies were then proposed, providing scientific base for decisionmaking during the coordinated development in Guiyang city.

Key words: coordinated development, system dynamics model, scenario analysis, coordinated degree analysis, Guiyang City