长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (08): 1279-1285.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201608015
吴洪颜, 曹璐, 李娟, 高苹
WU Hong-yan, CAO Lu, LI Juan, GAO Ping
摘要: 春季湿渍害对南方冬小麦生长发育和产量形成影响很大。选取能较好反映冬小麦湿渍害特征的降雨量、日照和作物需水量构建湿渍害气象判别指数,从春季湿渍害产量实际损失的角度,对受灾频率、因灾减产频率、产量损失风险强度进行分析,基于减产频率和产量灾损风险强度建立风险评估模型,并依据风险值大小进行分区。结果表明:沿江江南地区冬小麦春季湿渍害受灾频率最高,为风险高值区,约占全区台站27%;风险中值区范围较大,约占47%,分布在江淮东部、淮北大部、江汉平原以及鄂东南地区;低风险区约占全区16%,主要分布在湖北北部和淮北局部地区。
中图分类号:
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