长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201608015

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (08): 1279-1285.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201608015

长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估

吴洪颜, 曹璐, 李娟, 高苹

江苏省气象局, 江苏南京 210008

收稿日期:2015-12-03 修回日期:2016-04-20 出版日期:2016-08-20
通讯作者: 高苹 E-mail:gaoping5268@126.com
作者简介:吴洪颜(1971~),女,副研究员,主要从事应用气象方面研究.E-mail:jsqx_zqzb@126.com
基金资助:
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2015M24）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201406028）；国家自然科学基金（41371412）

RISK ASSESSMENT ON WINTER WHEAT SUFFERING FROM SPRING WET DAMAGES IN MIDDLE AND LOWER YANGTZE

WU Hong-yan, CAO Lu, LI Juan, GAO Ping

Jiangsu Province Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 21008, China

Received:2015-12-03 Revised:2016-04-20 Online:2016-08-20
Supported by:
Meteorological Key Program of Technology Integration and Application in China Meteorological Administration (CMAGJ2015M24);Special Fund for Meteorological-Scientific Research in the Public Interest (GYHY201406028);National Science Foundation of China (41371412)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 春季湿渍害对南方冬小麦生长发育和产量形成影响很大。选取能较好反映冬小麦湿渍害特征的降雨量、日照和作物需水量构建湿渍害气象判别指数，从春季湿渍害产量实际损失的角度，对受灾频率、因灾减产频率、产量损失风险强度进行分析，基于减产频率和产量灾损风险强度建立风险评估模型，并依据风险值大小进行分区。结果表明：沿江江南地区冬小麦春季湿渍害受灾频率最高，为风险高值区，约占全区台站27%；风险中值区范围较大，约占47%，分布在江淮东部、淮北大部、江汉平原以及鄂东南地区；低风险区约占全区16%，主要分布在湖北北部和淮北局部地区。

关键词: 冬小麦, 春季湿渍害, 减产频率, 灾损风险强度

Abstract: Spring wet damages seriously affect the growth and yield formation of winter wheat in south China. In this paper, a wet damage weather index was constructed with rainfall, sunshine and crop water requirement. From the perspective of winter wheat output loss, the frequency of yield reduction, disaster forming, damage risk intensity were analyzed, a damage intensity risk index model was established based on the frequency and damage risk intensity, and zones were divided according to the risk value. The results show that the southern region of the Yangtze River and western Jianghuai were the areas of high risk of spring wet damages, accounted for about 27% of district stations. The middle risk zone included most regions of Jiangsu and Anhui province, Jianghan plain region, eastern Jianghuai, southern Huaibei and the southeastern Hubei, which accounted for about 47%. The low risk area accounted for about 16% of the all district, mainly distributed in the northern Hubei and northern Huaibei areas.

Key words: winter wheat, spring wet damage, the frequency of yield reduction, damage risk intensity

中图分类号:

S429

吴洪颜, 曹璐, 李娟, 高苹. 长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(08): 1279-1285.

WU Hong-yan, CAO Lu, LI Juan, GAO Ping. RISK ASSESSMENT ON WINTER WHEAT SUFFERING FROM SPRING WET DAMAGES IN MIDDLE AND LOWER YANGTZE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(08): 1279-1285.

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