SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201701017

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以滇西南地区为研究区，计算出近53 a该区及周边44个气象站点标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和标准化降水指数（SPI）。运用M-K突变检测和Morlet小波交换等方法，对滇西南地区两种指数对应下的4种类型季节连旱变化特征进行系统分析。结果表明：近53 a中，两种指数判定的同一时间尺度下的干旱事件次数和发生时间基本统一，4种类型季节连旱事件为12~14次，多存在并发性；4个季节连旱时段上两种指数均存在3 a左右显著周期变化；同一时段上，两种指数在趋势变化格局空间分布和变化程度上均存在着较大差异，4个时段上的干湿变化趋势也表现出SPEI呈变干趋势，SPI则变干、变湿各为一半的明显不同，这主要是由于期间研究区显著增温加剧了“降水量-蒸散”的水分平衡；与SPI相比，SPEI考虑了热量因子对潜在蒸散发的贡献，能较好地对气候变暖背景下研究区干旱进行刻画。

关键词: 滇西南地区, 标准化降水指数, 标准化降水蒸散指数, 干旱演变

Abstract: As one of the most serious meteorological disaster, droughts affect the society, economy and the people's livelihood severely. Since the coming of twenty-first century, there are more frequent droughts in the Southwestern region of China. The serious phenomenon is spreading from Northern China to Southwest China. In order to better understand and comprehend the evolution characteristics of droughts in the Southwestern region of China, the changes of droughts in the different time periods (1961-2013) in the Southwest Yunnan area were systematically analyzed according to the evaluation criteria of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as well as the Mann-Kendall (MK) test method and Morlet wavelet analysis. The experimental results indicated that the weather status based on SPI index tended to become remarkably drier than that based on SPEI index in the former 33a in the Southwest Yunnan area. In the following 20a, the contrary is the case. On account of the same evaluation index, the frequency and occurrence time of droughts at the same time period was fundamentally consistent. In terms of the two indices, there were about 3a of periodic changes at four time periods. In the 53a, it tended to become dry based on the evaluation of two indexes in from December to June in the next year and from November to June in the next year. It tends to become slightly dry based on the SPEI index from December to May in the next year and from November to May in the next year while it tended to become slightly wet based on the SPI index. According to the spatiotemporal distribution of dry and wet weather, there were great differences in the spatial distribution of change patterns and change scope in the four time periods that were easy to have droughts based on the evaluation of the two indices, The main reason is that the water balance (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) was increased with the notable increase of the temperature in the researched area. Compared with SPI, SPEI has covered the impact of thermal factors in the potential evapotranspiration, therefore it is more effective to investigate the evolutions of the regional droughts under the background of climate warming.

Key words: Southwest Yunnan, SPI, SPEI, Drought evolution

中图分类号:

P467

赵平伟, 郭萍, 李立印, 舒珺. SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(01): 142-149.

ZHAO Ping-wei, GUO Ping, LI Li-yin, SHU Jun. COMPARISON OF SPEI AND SPI INDEX ON ACCOUNT OF THE DROUGHTS OF THE SOUTHWEST YUNNAN AREA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(01): 142-149.

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