近55年来华东地区旱涝时空变化特征

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201603017

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于华东地区89个气象站点近55年逐月降水资料,运用趋势分析法、IDW空间插值法、标准化降水指数(SPI)等方法,分析了1960~2014年期间我国华东地区旱涝灾害时空变化特征,并探讨了淮河南北旱涝的时空差异。结果表明:(1)近55年华东地区降水量整体呈波动上升趋势,其中淮河以北地区降水量呈波动下降趋势,而淮河以南呈上升趋势。(2)从年尺度旱涝变化看,华东地区雨涝频率大于干旱频率,但干旱强度大于雨涝强度,且淮河以南地区的干旱强度大于淮河以北,而雨涝强度小于淮河以北。(3)华东地区南北旱涝站次比呈反向发展趋势,即淮河以北旱灾影响范围不断扩大,雨涝影响范围不断减小,淮河以南与之相反。(4)华东地区严重旱涝频率在空间分布上呈南北反向格局,即淮河以北旱灾频率高,涝灾频率低;淮河以南涝灾频率高,旱灾频率低。

关键词: 旱涝, 变化特征, 标准化降水指数, 华东地区

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data of the 89 stations in East China from 1960 to 2014, using the climate tendency rate, IDW spatial interpolation method and standardized precipitation index (SPI), we analyzed the variation characteristics of droughts and floods and discussed the differences between north and south parts of Huaihe Rive from 1960 to 2014. The results show: (1) In recent 55 years, the precipitation in East China was gradually decreasing from south to north, for the area north to the Huaihe River, precipitation showed a downward trend, while precipitation in the area south to the Huaihe River was on the rise. (2) The frequencies of droughts and floods in South and North of East China showed a reverse trend. The influence range of drought in north of Huaihe expanded, the flood decreased, the area to the south of Huaihe River showed an opposite pattern. (3) The frequencies of droughts and floods in South and North of East China showed the reverse trend. The influence sphere of drought in the north of Huaihe was expanding, while the flood was falling, south of Huaihe showed the opposite trend. (4) The spatial distribution of frequency of severe drought and flood in East China appear north-south reverse pattern, which is the frequency of drought was high in north (south) of Huaihe, while the flood frequency showed an opposite pattern.

Key words: flood and drought, standardized precipitation index(SPI), variation characteristics, East China

中图分类号:

P426.616

唐宝琪, 延军平, 李双双, 刘永林. 近55年来华东地区旱涝时空变化特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(03): 497-505.

TANG Bao-qi, YAN Jun-ping, LI Shuang-shuang, LIU Yong-lin. EVOLUTION OF SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN EAST CHINA FROM 1960 TO 2014[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(03): 497-505.

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