长江流域资源与环境 >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (07): 1238-1245.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201507022

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的云南中部区域干旱时空变化特征分析

吴志杰, 何云玲   

  1. 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院, 云南 昆明 650091
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-19 修回日期:2014-09-26 出版日期:2015-07-20
  • 作者简介:吴志杰(1990~),男,硕士研究生,主要从事城市气候研究.E-mail:418624158@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    云南省自然科学基金项目(2011FB009)

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION OF DROUGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL YUNNAN PLATEAU BASED ON SPEI

WU Zhi-jie, HE Yun-ling   

  1. School of Resources Environment & Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
  • Received:2014-08-19 Revised:2014-09-26 Online:2015-07-20
  • Contact: 何云玲,E-mail:hyl610@126.com E-mail:hyl610@126.com

摘要: 利用云南中部地区1961~2010年逐月降水和气温资料,采用降水距平百分率和历史旱情资料验证了标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)在该地区的适用性,并采用Mann-kendall突变检验、Morlet小波和经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)等方法,分析了该地区干旱的时空演变特征,结果表明:(1)SPEI与降水距平百分率在时空上具有很好的相关性,验证了SPEI对降水变化的敏感性;(2)SPEI指数与历史旱情资料比较吻合,能够有效地反映云南中部区域的干旱特征;(3)年均SPEI呈波动下降趋势,干季SPEI降低趋势明显。年均SPEI存在着24 a的主周期和9 a的次周期,并于1977年发生了突变,此后开始降低,在整体上呈现出干旱化的趋势;(4)从SPEI的空间分布特征来看,其在整体上受大尺度气候系统的影响表现出一致的下降趋势,而在区域内部则表现出东南-西北(干热河谷)的反向结构差异。

关键词: 干旱, 标准化降水蒸散指数, 经验正交函数, 云南中部

Abstract: Based on the monthly data of 37 meteorological stations over the Central Yunnan Plateau during 1961-2010, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to study the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts. To assess the temporal patterns of droughts as multi-scale events, the SPEI were calculated for seasonal (6 months) and annual droughts (12 months). In this study, the trends of SPEI were detected with linear regression and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The morlet wavelet analysis method was used to detect the change interval of annual mean SPEI. The spatial distribution characteristics of SPEI were analyzed via empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The results indicated that: (1) the annual mean SPEI at 37 meteorological stations of the Central Yunnan Plateau was positively correlated with precipitation anomaly percentage and had good sensitivity to the variation of precipitation. Spatial patterns of the SPEI in 2010, 2005 and 1993 over the Central Yunnan Plateau showed good coincidence with the historical drought records; (2) over the Central Yunnan Plateau, annual mean SPEI showed a decreasing trend since the beginning of the 1970s, however an increasing trend was found in the middle of 1990s, and then a continuous decreasing after 2000. The SPEI at 6-month timescale shows a significant decreasing trend in the dry-season (November-April in the following year) in the whole, but there was no significant trend in the rainy season (May-October); (3) the morlet wavelet analysis revealed that the annual mean SPEI fluctuated significantly with the interval of 24 years and 9 years. The Central Yunnan Plateau tends to be dryer after an abrupt changes in annual mean SPEI occur in 1977; (4) from the spatial distribution, four spatial patterns of SPEI variability were objectively defined by the EOF analysis, which were associated with distinct temporal variations and geographical area over the Central Yunnan Plateau. As a result of the influence of large scale climate systems, the annual mean SPEI showed a decreasing trend in the whole research area. Most significant decreasing rate of annual mean SPEI was found in the Southeast parts of the study region. There was no significant trend of annual mean SPEI in the Southwest, whereas the hot-dry valleys along the Jinsha River showed a significant increasing trend of annual mean SPEI during the past five decades.

Key words: droughts, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, empirical orthogonal function, Central Yunnan Plateau

中图分类号: 

  • P467
[1] 陈宗瑜.云南气候总论[M].北京:气象出版社,2001:133-139.
[2] 王佳津,孟耀斌,张 朝,等.云南省Palmer旱度模式的建立——2010年干旱灾害特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(1):190-197.
[3] 刘杨梅,黄 英,王 杰.云南省滇中地区气象干旱特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(18):9799-9801.
[4] 彭贵芬,刘 瑜,张一平.云南干旱的气候特征及变化趋势研究[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):40-44.
[5] 张万诚,郑建萌,任菊章.云南极端气候干旱的特征分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):59-64.
[6] DAI A G.Drought under global warming:A review[J].Climate Change,2011,02 (1):45-65.
[7] QUAN C,HAN S,UTESCHERT,et al.Validation of temperature-precipitation based aridity index:Paleoclimatic implications[J].Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology,2013,386:86-95.
[8] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERÍA S,LÓPEZ-MORENO J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1-52.
[9] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERÍA S,LORENZO-LACRUZ J,et al.Performance of drought indices for ecological,agricultural,and hydrological applications[J].Earth Interactions,2012,16(10):1-27.
[10] 李伟光,易 雪,侯美亭,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.
[11] 王文举,崔 鹏,刘 敏,等.近50年湖北省多时间尺度干旱演变特征[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(29):279-284.
[12] 王 林,陈 文.近百年西南地区干旱的多时间尺度演变特征[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(4):21-26.
[13] 熊光洁,张博凯,李崇银,等.基于SPEI的中国西南地区1961~2012年干旱变化特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):192-198.
[14] TELESCA L,VICENTE-SERRANO S M,LÓPEZ-MORENO J I. Power spectral characteristics of drought indices in the Ebro river basin at different temporal scales[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2012,27(5):1155~1170.
[15] 许玲燕,王慧敏,段琪彩,等.基于SPEI的云南省夏玉米生长季干旱时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1024-1034.
[16] 何云玲,鲁枝海.近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1119-1124.
[17] 姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏,等.中国东北地区近百年气温序列的小波分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,04(2):122-125.
[18] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:119-120.
[19] ZHANG JP,YANG Z,WANG DJ,et al.Climate change and causes in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley of Yunnan,China[J].Journal of Arid Environments,2002,51(1):153-162.
[1] 赵平伟, 郭萍, 李立印, 舒珺. SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(01): 142-149.
[2] 刘世杰, 苏舒, 梁亮, 童小华. 基于植被状态指数的干旱化特征及气候驱动因素分析——以江苏省为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(12): 1927-1933.
[3] 陈晶, 顾世祥, 何大明, 陈刚. 近60多年来滇池流域干旱特性及重现期分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(09): 1457-1465.
[4] 龚艳冰, 戴靓靓, 胡娜, 刘高峰, 张继国. 基于云推理和模糊逻辑关系模型的干旱等级预测方法研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(08): 1273-1278.
[5] 李军, 王兆礼, 黄泽勤, 钟睿达, 卓圣峰, 陈希贤. 基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(07): 1142-1149.
[6] 郑太辉, 陈晓安, 杨洁. 近50 a江西省旱、涝变化趋势及驱动因素研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(04): 664-670.
[7] 王婷, 章新平, 黎祖贤, 罗紫东, 廖梦思, 刘娜. 近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(03): 514-522.
[8] 龚艳冰, 胡娜, 刘高峰, 冯兰萍. 基于GEV干旱指数和DFA方法的苏北地区季节性干旱研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(01): 140-146.
[9] 秦鹏程, 刘敏. 气象干旱诊断评估方法及其在长江中下游地区的应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(11): 1969-1976.
[10] 赵林, 于家烁, 薄岩, 杨娇, 李汉青. 基于SPEI的湖北省近52年干旱时空格局变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(07): 1230-1237.
[11] 叶磊, 周建中, 曾小凡, 张海荣, 卢鹏. 气候变化下SPEI指数在嘉陵江流域的干旱评估应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(06): 943-948.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 解晓南,许朋柱,秦伯强. 太湖流域苏锡常地区地面沉降若干问题探析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(1): 125 -131 .
[2] 郑明媚,李满春,毛 亮,黎韶光. GIS支持的县域人口迁移空间模型研究——以浙江省临安市为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3): 281 -286 .
[3] 梁常德,龙天渝,李继承,刘腊美. 三峡库区非点源氮磷负荷研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 26 -30 .
[4] 王云琦,王玉杰,朱金兆. 重庆缙云山典型林分林地土壤抗蚀性分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 775 -780 .
[5] 王里奥,黄 川,詹艳慧,袁 辉. 三峡库区消落带淹水—落干过程土壤磷吸附—解吸及释放研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(5): 593 -597 .
[6] 吴丰林,周德民,胡金明. 基于景观格局演变的城市湿地景观生态规划途径[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 368 .
[7] 张林, 王礼茂, 王睿博,. 长江中上游防护林体系森林植被碳贮量及固碳潜力估算[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(2): 111 .
[8] 马育军, 黄贤金, 肖思思, 王 舒. 基于DEA模型的区域生态环境建设绩效评价——以江苏省苏州市为例 [J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(6): 769 .
[9] 陈永柏, 邓 云| 梁瑞峰. 溪洛渡水电站叠梁门取水方式减缓下泄低温水的优化调度[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(03): 340 .
[10] 胡振鹏, 葛, 刚, 刘成林, 陈伏生, 李, 述. 鄱阳湖湿地植物生态系统结构及湖水位对其影响研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(06): 597 .