关键词: 长江, 径流趋势分析, 突变分析, 1990s

Abstract: Discharge trends and abruption in the Yangtze Basin have been analyzed based on the monthly discharge data, and the MannKendall statistical method was used to test the trend in change of the discharge. The results indicate that slight increase in trend has been detected in annual discharge since 1990s, but the trend is not significant and the distribution is uneven with the decrease in middle and upper reaches, and increase in lower reaches of the Yangtze Basin. According to the seasonal and monthly data, there is significant increase in trend in summer and winter, especially in July and January. The flood season discharge shows slight increase in trend, which may be one of the reasons leading to frequent flood occurence in 1990s. The analysis of the abruption reveals an abrupted change in 1926 on annual scale with the MannKendall rank statistical test in Yichang and Hankou stations, which is somewhat coincident with the change of temperature and precipitation.

Key words: the Yangtze Basin, discharge, trends and abruption analysis, 1990s