长江流域资源与环境 >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (02): 212-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201502005

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于综合指数法的鄱阳湖流域水资源安全评价研究

陆建忠, 崔肖林, 陈晓玲   

  1. (1.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079;2.鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学),江西 南昌 330022
  • 出版日期:2015-02-20

ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCE SECURITY IN POYANG LAKE WATERSHED BASED ON COMPOSITE INDEX METHOD

LU Jianzhong1, CUI Xiaolin1, CHEN Xiaoling1,2   

  1. (1.State Key laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, China
  • Online:2015-02-20

摘要:

从“状态压力响应”指标系统框架出发,建立了鄱阳湖流域水资源安全评价指标体系。采用综合指数法,构建变异系数对指标权重进行客观赋值,对鄱阳湖水资源安全进行评价。结果表明:河网密度和农业生产化肥农药施用量等指标对鄱阳湖水资源安全有较大影响。在2000~2010年鄱阳湖流域水资源安全经历了由一般状态(状态Ⅲ)到良好状态(状态Ⅳ),再到一般状态(状态Ⅲ),最后发展为较差状态(状态Ⅱ)的过程。从警源上分析发现,这种变化主要由区域经济不断增长,人口压力增大,工农业生产生活用水增加,化肥农药施用量增加所致。从总体趋势上看,鄱阳湖流域水资源安全状态呈现恶化的趋势,虽然近年环保意识逐渐增强,在环保投资方面有所增加,并且提高了污水处理率,加强了工业废水排放管理,但还是难以承受经济社会发展的压力,使得水资源安全暴露出逐渐恶化的趋势,最后定量地分析了水资源安全状态变化原因,并针对水资源保护提出了具体保护措施,给出经济发展的用水约束条件以保障鄱阳湖流域水资源安全。对水资源安全做出合理定量的评价,可为鄱阳湖流域水资源合理开发和可持续利用提供科学依据

Abstract:

With the development of the economy in the Poyang Lake Ecoeconomic Region, water resources have been intensively explored and utilized. In order to keep the economy and society developing sustainable, it is necessary to assess the water resource security (WRS) for the Poyang Lake watershed.Firstly, based on the representative principle, integrity principle,quantifiable principle and comparable principle, the index system to assess water resources security forPoyang Lake watershedwas established under the framework of statepressureresponse index system. Secondly, combining the data from the Statistical Yearbook and Water Resources Bulletin of Jiangxi Province, the composite index method wasapplied to calculate assessed values from 2000 to 2010. The variation coefficient method was also used to assign weights for each index objectively. Then, the assessed values of WRS were classified to five classes of the WRS status based on unequal interval method, and the WRS status included extreme safety (Class V), very safety (Class IV), safety (Class III), unsafety (Class II) and extreme unsafety (Class I).Results showed that among the indexes, population density, river network density and the application rate of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have a great influence on WRS in Poyang Lake watershed, because they had large weight calculated by the objective variation coefficient method. The status of WRS in Poyang Lake watershed had experienced the trend from the safety(Class III) to very safety (Class IV), to the safety (Class III), and finally developing to the unsafety (Class II) from 2000 to 2010. From the perspective of risk sources of WRS,thisvariation trendwas mainly caused by the increasing of the population, industry and agriculture production used water, domestic water used and the large utilizingof chemical fertilizers and pesticides. In addition, the overall trend of WRS status in Poyang Lake watershed from 2000 to 2010 show a trend of deterioration. Although the awareness of environmental protection has been gradually enhanced, and environmental investmentswere increasing, the rate of wastewater treatment has been improved and the management of industrial wastewater has been strengthened in recent years, it is difficult to suffer the pressure from the economic and social development, which made the water resources exposing the worsening trend.From the current status of WRS and their risk sources from 2000 to 2010, we can predict that the status of WRS will be in safety (Class III) or unsafe (Class II) status in Poyang Lake watershedin the near future. In the year with less precipitation, the status of WRS will be worse because of the economy increasing development. Only if the society and economy are developing with the growth of population controlled, environment protection awareness strengthened, the rate of wastewater treatment and environment investment increased, and water quality of rivers improved, the sustainable utility of water resource may be utilized and explored sustainably. Quantitative assessment of WRS and its variation trend analysis will provide a scientific basis for reasonable development and sustainable utilityof water resources in Poyang Lake watershed

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