利用高分辨率气候模式对湖北未来气候变化的模拟与预估

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201706016

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (06): 937-944.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201706016

利用高分辨率气候模式对湖北未来气候变化的模拟与预估

邓婷¹, 王润^1,2, 姜彤³, 黄金龙^4,5, 方晓¹, 刘润¹

1. 湖北大学资源环境学院, 湖北武汉 430062;
2. 区域开发与环境响应湖北省重点实验室, 湖北武汉 430062;
3. 中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
4. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
5. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-10-17 修回日期:2017-01-12 出版日期:2017-06-20
通讯作者: 王润,E-mail:rwang@iue.ac.cn E-mail:rwang@iue.ac.cn
作者简介:邓婷(1992~),女,硕士研究生,主要从事区域可持续方面研究.E-mail:dengting@student.hubu.edu.cn
基金资助:
湖北省"楚天学者"计划项目特别支持

SIMULATION AND PROJECTION OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUBEI PROVINCE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

DENG Ting¹, WANG Run^1,2, JIANG Tong³, HUANG Jin-long^4,5, FANG Xiao¹, LIU Run¹

1. College of Resources and Environment, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China;
2. Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, Wuhan 430062, China;
3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
4. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-10-17 Revised:2017-01-12 Online:2017-06-20
Supported by:
CHUTIAN Scholarshop Program

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM对湖北省降水和气温的模拟数据，对比分析了基准期（1961~2005年）的模拟结果和同期CN05.1的观测数据，并对RCP4.5情景下的未来（2006~2050年）气候进行了年尺度和季节尺度的预估。结果表明：（1） CCLM区域气候模式较好地模拟了湖北气温的演变趋势及其空间分布格局，对降水的时空波动模拟与同期CN05.1在降水时空变化上的匹配度较弱；（2） RCP4.5情景下，2006~2050年湖北T、T_min、T_max呈上升趋势。四季气温呈一致上升的趋势，冬季的上升速度最快，对年尺度上T、T_min、T_max上升的趋势贡献最大。（3） RCP4.5情景下，2006~2050年湖北T、T_min、T_max呈全区一致上升的格局。其中增幅最大的区域均集中于汉江湖北段北部。春季T、T_min、T_max增温大值区位于西北山地区；夏季中部平原区T、T_min、T_max相较于其他区域增幅较大；秋季西南山地区T和T_max较其他区域增温较高，T_min的增温大值区位于汉江湖北段北部；冬季鄂东南丘陵T相较于其他区域增幅较大，汉江湖北段北部T_min增温较大，西南山地T_max增温较大。

关键词: 气候模式, CCLM, RCP4.5, 模拟与预估, 湖北

Abstract: Based on the comparative analysis between the simulation data from the high-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) and the CN05.1 data based on the observation in the reference period (1961–2005), we conducted projections on future climate change under the scenario of RCP4.5 at both annual and seasonal scales for the Hubei Province. The results showed:(1)CCLM presented a satisfactory simulation performance on the changing trend of temperature and its spatial distribution pattern, but was not matched very well with the CN05.1 observation precipitation data. (2)Under the RCP4.5, from 2006 to 2050, T, T_min and T_max in Hubei Province show a rising trend. The temperature is projected to be rising in all four seasons, while the winter has the fastest increase and the greatest contribution to the rise of annual T, T_min as well as T_max. (3)Under the RCP4.5, in the period of 2006–2050, T, T_min and T_max will increase in the whole region compared to the reference period. The region with the high increase of temperature is located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In spring, the regions with high increase of temperature are located in northwestern mountain area. In summer, the increase of T, T_min and T_max in the middle plain region is higher than other regions. In fall, the increase of T and T_max in southwestern mountain region is higher than that in other regions. The regions with high increase of T_min are located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In winter, the increase of T in hilly regions of southeastern Hubei is higher than that in other regions, the same for the T_min in north part of north section of Han River and T_max in southwestern mountain region.

Key words: climate model, CCLM, RCP4.5, simulation and projection, Hubei Province

中图分类号:

P463

邓婷, 王润, 姜彤, 黄金龙, 方晓, 刘润. 利用高分辨率气候模式对湖北未来气候变化的模拟与预估[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(06): 937-944.

DENG Ting, WANG Run, JIANG Tong, HUANG Jin-long, FANG Xiao, LIU Run. SIMULATION AND PROJECTION OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUBEI PROVINCE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(06): 937-944.

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