长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (11): 2569-2580.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202111001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长江经济带发展战略与就业:促进还是抑制?——基于市级面板数据的双重差分分析

赵领娣1,2,李   飞1,王   琪3   

  1. (1.中国海洋大学经济学院,山东 青岛 266100; 2.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东 青岛 266100; 3.中国工商银行青岛高科园支行,山东 青岛 266061)
  • 出版日期:2021-11-20 发布日期:2021-12-13

Development Strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Employment: Promotion or Inhibition? A Difference-in-Differences Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities

ZHAO Ling-di 1,2, LI Fei1, WANG Qi3   

  1. (1. School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;2. Institute of Marine Development of OUC,Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at University,Ministry of Education,Qingdao 266100, China;3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Qingdao Hi-Tech Park Branch,Qingdao 266061, China)
  • Online:2021-11-20 Published:2021-12-13

摘要: 客观评价长江经济带发展战略的就业效果,厘清战略对就业的影响机制,对于推动长江经济带绿色高质量发展和实现更充分就业具有重要意义。基于2009~2017年全国268个地级城市面板数据,首先采用双重差分法(DID)评估长江经济带发展战略对长江经济带就业影响的净效应;其次运用多重中介效应模型对长江经济带发展战略影响就业的作用机制进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)长江经济带发展战略对于长江经济带各地区就业产生了显著的促进作用,且一系列稳健性检验均表明该结果成立;(2)长江经济带发展战略主要通过促进产业转型升级、综合立体交通走廊建设以及加大生态环境保护三条路径,作用于长江经济带各地区就业。各级政府应继续推动长江经济带发展战略的实施与完善,强化产业转型升级,加快构筑综合立体交通走廊,扎实推进生态环境保护,共同稳定长江经济带就业大局。

Abstract: It is significant to objectively evaluate the employment situation brought about by the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and clarify the influence of the strategy on the employment in order to promote a green and high-quality development and achieve a fuller employment in the area of Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the panel data of 268 prefecture-level cities across the country from 2009 to 2017, this paper first uses the difference-in-differences model (DID) to evaluate the net effect of this development strategy on the employment in the area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt;then the multiple intermediary effect model is used to empirically test the impact mechanism of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on employment. It is found that:(1) the development strategy of Yangtze River Economic Belt has significantly promoted the employment in the areas covered by the Yangtze River Economic Belt, which has been proved valid by a series of robustness tests;(2) the development strategy of Yangtze River Economic Belt promotes the employment in the area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt by means of three paths, that is, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, building comprehensive three-dimensional transportation corridors, and increasing ecological and environmental protection. Governments at all levels should continue to implement and improve the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, strengthen industrial transformation and upgrading, accelerate the construction of comprehensive three-dimensional transportation corridors, solidly promote ecological and environmental protection, and jointly stabilize the overall employment situation in the area of Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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