洞庭湖流域“径流—湖泊水量”关系的土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）响应特征

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202302013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 径流是洞庭湖等长江中下游通江湖泊水量变化的重要驱动因素，土地利用/覆盖变化（Land Use and Cover Change，LUCC）通过改变下垫面特征，强烈改变了流域水文过程，并进一步影响了湖泊水量变化。然而，受气候变化等多因子复杂交互作用，LUCC对“径流—湖泊水量”关系的影响方式与贡献特征依然面临较强的不确定性，成为流域水资源规划与管理面临的关键理论瓶颈。针对上述问题，基于SWAT水文模型，采用2001~2019年MODIS遥感数据产品，系统分析了洞庭湖流域LUCC对“径流—湖泊水量”的影响特征。结果表明：（1）洞庭湖流域多年平均径流和湖泊水量分别为2 371亿m³和682亿m³，季节上均表现为5~9月份较高、10~4月份较小的单峰型分布特征，径流年际变化趋势较弱（y =14.926x+2 222.1，R² = 0.043 9，p<0.01），而湖泊水量则呈现较缓慢的下降趋势（y = -4.147 3x + 723.880，R² = 0.066 7，p<0.01）；（2）洞庭湖湖泊水量与流域径流量呈显著正相关性，年际尺度上可表示为y=0.173x+272.11（R²=0.588 5，p<0.01），月尺度上则可表示为y=0.249 4x+7.257 4（R²=0.565 7，p<0.01）；（3）LUCC对“径流—湖泊水量”关系具有较强影响，其对多年年均径流量贡献约为364亿m3，约占多年径流总量的15.4%，对湖泊水量贡献约63亿m³，占总蓄水量的9.2 %。研究结果有助于正确认识与把握洞庭湖等通江湖泊水量变化的内在影响机制，并为流域相关水资源治理与规划提供科学的辅助支撑。

Abstract: Runoff is an important driving factor for water volume changes in Dongting Lake and other lakes in middle-lower Yangtze River, while Land use and cover change (LUCC) strongly changes the hydrological process of the basin by changing the characteristics of the underlying surface, which further affects the change of lake water volume. However, due to the complex interaction of multiple factors such as climate change, the influence and contribution characteristics of LUCC on the relationship between “runoff-lake water volume” still have some strong uncertainties, which has become the key theoretical issue for water resources planning and management in the basin. Therefore, in order to solve the above problems, the paper uses the 2001-2019 MODIS remote sensing data products and the SWAT hydrological model to systematically analyze the influence characteristics of LUCC in the Dongting Lake Basin on “runoff-lake water volume”. The results show：(1) The multi-year average runoff and lake water volume in the Dongting Lake Basin are 237.1 billion m3 and 68.2 billion m3, respectively. Seasonally, they show a unimodal distribution with a higher level in May-September and a smaller one in October-April. The change trend of runoff was gentle （y =14.926x+2 222.1，R² = 0.043 9，p<0.01）, while the water volume showed a slowly downward trend （y = -4.147 3x + 723.880，R² = 0.066 7，p<0.01）;(2) There is a significant positive correlation between the water volume in Dongting Lake and the watershed runoff. On an annual scale, the relationship between the two can be expressed as y=0.173x+272.11（R²=0.588 5，p<0.01）; On the monthly scale, it can be expressed as y=0.249 4x+7.257 4（R²=0.565 7，p<0.01）, which is more significant than the annual scale; (3) LUCC has a strong impact on the relationship between “runoff-lake water volume”. The multi-year average annual runoff caused by LUCC increases by nearly 36.4 billion m³, accounting for 15.4% of the annual average runoff, and the lake water volume has increased by about 6.3 billion m3，accounting for 9.2% of the average water storage. The research results help to correctly understand and grasp the internal influence mechanism of water volume changes in Dongting Lake and other river-connected lakes, so as to provide scientific auxiliary support for the water resources protection, governance and planning in the basin.

吴宏, 冯徽徽, 邹滨, 王玉龙. 洞庭湖流域“径流—湖泊水量”关系的土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）响应特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2023, 32(2): 374-383.

WU Hong, FENG Hui-Hui, ZOU Bin, WANG Yu-Long. Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Response Characteristics of the “Surface Runoff-lake Water Volume” Relationship in the Dongting Lake Basin[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2023, 32(2): 374-383.

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