关键词: 湿地公园, CLUE-S, MCR

Abstract: Wetland park planning based on computer models has the advantage of low cost, high efficiency, more scenarios, and the ability to provide preliminary scheme to estimate and select. This research applied CLUE-S model in wetland park planning, combined with ecological protection scenario and tourism development scenario, with an aim to predict the landscape pattern in 2020 of the Xinjizhou Wetland Park. At last, from the angle of minimum cumulative resistance, the two scenarios were compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, in the first scenario of ecological protection, the wetland and forest will comprise the major components of the park in 2020, occupying 47.6 percent and 39.9 percent of the total land area, respectively, while the land for grassland and built-up is only 10.9% and 0.6%. In the second scenario of tourism development, the land for wetland, forest, grassland and built-up in 2020 will be 46.9%, 34.7%,1.7% and 16.75,respectively.To verify the applicability of CLUE-S model in the study area, the accuracy test index of Kappa was calculated and its value reached 0.763, indicating the CLUE-S model has good reliability in the study area. Secondly, the content of soil organic matter was the most important driving factor to promote landscape changes in wetland park and its effect was much higher than the other factors, including wetland height, slope, soil pH, organic matter content and the distance from the shoreline, away from the main road. Thirdly, by establishing the MCR model, it was found that the both two scenarios have their advantages and disadvantages. In the ecological protection scenario, the crossing corridor for wetland birds should be broadened and the man-made interference in the buffer of minimum resistance line should be reduced. Im the tourism development scenario, it is particularly important to construct the whole ecological series, and it needs to provide a good protection channel for wetland birds through the large resistance area in the central region. Though wetland park planning based computer models has its limitations, it can provide decision support for the spatial planning of wetland parks which are very sensitive to dramatic ecological changes. With the development of new computer technology based GIS models, scenario planning method will become an important tool for the making of wetland conservation and development plan in the future, thus exploring a new planning way to harmonious development of ecology and economy.

Key words: wetland park, CLUE-S, MCR