江西省气候变化的特征及其对水稻产量的贡献——基于“气候－经济”模型

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201604008

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (04): 590-598.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201604008

江西省气候变化的特征及其对水稻产量的贡献——基于“气候－经济”模型

付莲莲¹, 朱红根², 周曙东³

1. 江西农业大学理学院, 江西南昌 330045;
2. 江西农业大学经济管理学院, 江西南昌 330045;
3. 南京农业大学经济管理学院, 江苏南京 210095

收稿日期:2015-07-21 修回日期:2015-10-27 出版日期:2016-04-20
通讯作者: 朱红根 E-mail:zhgen2004@163.com
作者简介:付莲莲(1981~),女,讲师,博士,主要研究方向为资源和环境经济.E-mail:fulianhappy@163.com
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目《农产品安全、气候变暖与农业生产转型研究》(13&ZD160)、国家自然科学基金项目(71561014,41361007,71461019);江西现代农业及其优势产品可持续发展的决策支持协同创新中心课题(XDNYA1502)

CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION ON RICE YIELD IN JIANGXI —BASED ON THE “CLIMATE-ECONOMY” MODEL

FU Lian-lian¹, ZHU Hong-gen², ZHOU Shu-dong³

1. College of ScienceJiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;
2. College of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;
3. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received:2015-07-21 Revised:2015-10-27 Online:2016-04-20
Supported by:
Project supported by the Major program of National Social Science Foundation of China“Safety of agricultural products,climate warming and transformation of agricultural production” (13&ZD160)、Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71561014,41361007,71461019); Project supported by Jiangxi decsion support for the sus development of modern agriculture and its advabtage indust collaborative innovation center(XDNYA1502)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用气候倾向率和M-K突变检验,分析1951~2012年江西省气候和温度的变化趋势和突变特征;构建“气候－经济”新模型,研究气候因子对水稻产量的影响,最后借助BP神经网络模型预测未来10a气候因子对水稻产量的贡献。结果表明:过去60多年来气温平均每10a升高0.172℃,而降水的线性倾向不显著;气温突变开始的时间约为1997年,降水的突变趋势不明显;不同阶段气候因素的贡献率及作用方向存在差异,1978~1997年气候因子贡献率为5.97%,其中温度和降水贡献率分别为1.51%、4.46%。1998~2013年气候因子贡献率为8.98%,温度和降水贡献率分别为4.63%、4.35%。物质要素在不同阶段的贡献率均为70%以上,其中播种面积和化肥的影响程度较大;未来10a气温对江西水稻产量的贡献为1.48,降水量对水稻产量的贡献为2.22。

关键词: 气候变化, 水稻产量, M-K突变检验, “气候－经济”模型, BP神经网络模型

Abstract: Climate trend rate and M-K mutation test methods are applied to analyze trends and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jiangxi during 1951~2012. “Climate-economy” model is established to study the effect of climatic factors on rice yield. Finally, BP neural network model is used to predict the contribution of climatic factors to rice yield in the next 10 years. The results showed that temperature increased at a rate of 0.172℃/10a over the past 60 yearsbut linear trend of precipitation was not significant. Mutation of temperature occurred in 1997. Mutation of precipitation was not obvious. There were differences between contribution and direction of climatic factors action at different stages. The contribution of climatic factors was 5.97% during 1978~1997, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 1.51% and 4.46%. The contribution of climatic factors was 8.98% during 1998~2013, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 4.63% and 4.35%. The contribution of material elements was above 70% in different stages, including a large degree of plantings and fertilizer. The contribution of temperature to rice yield in Jiangxi province was 1.48 and the contribution of precipitation was 2.22 over the next 10 years.

Key words: climate change, rice yield, M-K mutation test, “Climate-economy”model, BP neural network model

中图分类号:

P461

付莲莲, 朱红根, 周曙东. 江西省气候变化的特征及其对水稻产量的贡献——基于“气候－经济”模型[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(04): 590-598.

FU Lian-lian, ZHU Hong-gen, ZHOU Shu-dong. CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION ON RICE YIELD IN JIANGXI —BASED ON THE “CLIMATE-ECONOMY” MODEL[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(04): 590-598.

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