环洱海地区气候变化特征研究

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201604009

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (04): 599-605.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201604009

环洱海地区气候变化特征研究

丁文荣

云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院, 云南昆明 650500

收稿日期:2015-08-03 修回日期:2015-11-25 出版日期:2016-04-20
作者简介:丁文荣(1979~),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源方面的研究工作.E-mail:dingwenrong@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“云南环洱海地区乡村聚落空间演变机理与优化研究”(41261044);国家自然科学基金项目“横断山区典型干旱河谷气候变化异常与LUCC的水文过程响应机理研究”(41101099);云南省社会发展科技计划(云南城镇上山的地理环境系统背景研究.NO:(2012CA024));云南省教育厅重点项目(金沙江下游龙川江流域水沙输移过程及机制研究.NO:(2015Z056)

A STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AROUND THE ERHAI AREA, CHINA

DING Wen-rong

College of Tourism and Geography Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

Received:2015-08-03 Revised:2015-11-25 Online:2016-04-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (On Spatial Evolution Mechanism and Its Optimization of Rural Settlement in Erhai Lake Ring Area in Yunnan (41261044); National Natural Science Foundation of China (Research on the hydrological process response to climate change and LUCC in a typical dry valley of Hengduan Mountain (41101099); Social development science and technology project of Yunnan Province (Study on the background of the geographical environment system of the mountain areaurban in Yunnan. NO: (2012CA024); Key projects of Education Department of Yunnan Province (Study on the water and sediment transportation mechanism in Longchuanjiang basin of Jinsha River. NO: (2015Z056)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 环洱海地区是云南省具有高原湖泊生态脆弱区、民族文化多元融合区和乡村经济发展活跃区等多重叠合特征的典型区域,是全球气候变化影响的敏感区和脆弱区。以环洱海地区1951~2014年6个基本站点的逐年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、最大日降水量和日降水量≥0.1 mm日数资料为基础。采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析等方法,研究了环洱海地区气候变化规律。结果发现:自1951年以来,环洱海地区年均气温和极端最低气温呈现出升高的趋势,而极端最高气温则呈现降低的趋势,变化速率分别为0.07℃/10 a、0.03℃/10 a和-0.14℃/10 a,对于年降水量、最大日降水量和降水日数而言,三者均为减少趋势,速率分别为-12.85 mm/10 a、-1.09mm/10 a和-1.73 d/10 a;环洱海地区年均气温、极端最高和极端最低气温均没有发生突变,年降水量和降水日数在2010年发生了一次减少突变,而最大日降水量则没有检测到突变的年份;环洱海地区年平均气温和年降水量在长时间尺度上的周期性变化最为显著,分别存在30 a和33 a左右的周期变化,并贯穿整个研究时段,而短时间尺度上的周期变化局域性特征突出;从未来演变趋势来看,年平均气温和极端最低气温将维持升温趋势,而极端最高气温则将持续降低趋势,年降水量继续减少的趋势未来将会逆转,但最大日降水量和降水日数两者将持续减少的概率更大。

关键词: 气候变化, 气温, 降水, 环洱海地区

Abstract: Around the Erhai region in Yunnan province as multiple composite characteristics of typical area, have plateau lakes ecologically fragile area, ethnic culture diversity area and rural economic development active region at the same time, and it is also a vulnerable area of climate change. The annual average temperature, extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days over 0.1mm of six stations around the Erhai lake area from 1951 to 2014 data as the foundation data are adopted. By linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall trend test, Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis method, climate change law was studied. It showing that: since 1951, the annual temperature and extreme minimum temperature were showed a rising trend, while extreme maximum temperature showed reducing trends, the change rate were 0.07/10a, 0.03/10a and 0.14/10a, respectively. The annual precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days, are reduced trend, the rate is 12.85mm/10a and 1.73days/10a respectively. Annual average temperature, extreme high and extreme low temperature changes were not mutate, annual precipitation and precipitation days in 2010 there was a mutation decrease, while the maximum daily precipitation detected no year of mutation; Around the Erhai lake regional annual average temperature and annual precipitation have long time scales of the most significant cyclical change, with 30 years and 33 years respectively; and throughout the study period, local characteristics of periodic change of the short time scale is outstanding. From the point of future evolution trend, the annual average temperature and extreme minimum temperature will keep warming trend, while the extreme maximum temperature will continue to reduce, and continue reduce trend to increase trend of annual precipitation probability is smaller, while the probability of both the maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days will continue reduce trend are significant.

Key words: Climate change, temperature, precipitation, around Erhai area

中图分类号:

P463.1

丁文荣. 环洱海地区气候变化特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(04): 599-605.

DING Wen-rong. A STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AROUND THE ERHAI AREA, CHINA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(04): 599-605.

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