长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (9): 2090-2101.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202109005

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

新媒体对旅游地生命周期的非线性影响——基于SEIR信息传播模型

谢秋逸 1,2,周年兴 1,2* ,朱净萱 1,3   

  1. (1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京210023;2. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏 南京210023;3. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏 南京 210023)
  • 出版日期:2021-09-20 发布日期:2021-09-27

Nonlinear Influence of New Media on the Tourism Area Life Cycle:Based on SEIR Information Transmission Mode

XIE Qiu-yi 1,2,ZHOU Nian-xing 1,2,ZHU Jing-xuan 1,3   

  1. (1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023,China;2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geography information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023,China;3. Key Laboratory of VGE of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)
  • Online:2021-09-20 Published:2021-09-27

摘要: 旅游地生命周期理论是旅游地理学的经典理论。它可以较好地判断旅游地的发展阶段,并在一定程度上预测其发展趋势,为制定针对性的发展战略提供理论依据。但在新媒体的影响下,出现许多“网红”旅游地,其发展变化趋势与传统旅游地生命周期具有许多不同。综合运用SEIR模型和广告预算模型,通过模拟游客量,描述了新媒体对旅游地生命周期的非线性影响,并选择青海茶卡盐湖、重庆洪崖洞、西安永兴坊为例验证模型的有效性。综合所有模拟结果,得出以下结论:旅游地生命周期在新媒体影响下可能演变为“二次增长型”、“传统S型”、“先增后降型”、“短期波动型”4种形态,其具体形态变化取决于游客的信息传播意愿和旅游意愿以及旅游地发展阶段。研究结果对旅游地生命周期理论进行了有效的补充,同时可以为信息时代旅游景区的发展提供实践指导。

Abstract: The theory of tourism area life cycle is a classic theory of tourism geography. It can better judge the development stage of tourism destination, and predict its development trend to a certain extent. It`s also provide theoretical basis in setting unique development strategy. However, there are increasingly more “web celebrity” tourist destinations, which have much different development trends from the traditional life cycle, by the influence of new media. In this paper, SEIR model and advertising budget model were used to describe the nonlinear impact of new media on the tourism area life cycle by simulating the tourist volume. To verify the efficiency of this simulation, Chaka Salt Lake in Qinghai province, Hongya Cave in Chongqing city and Yongxing Square in Xi’an city were chosen as examples. The core conclusion could be summarized by taking all simulation results together, the tourism area life cycle may evolve into four kinds of forms, including “secondary growth”, “traditional S-type”, “first increase then decrease type” and “short-term fluctuation type” under the influence of new media. The specific trend depends on the willingness of tourists in diffusing travel information and development stage of tourism destination. This research provided an effectively supplemented to the theory of tourism area life cycle and practical guidance for the development of tourist attractions in the information age.

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