长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (3): 638-652.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202303017

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

70 a来中国乡村人口收缩时空过程及其水土资源效应

董朝阳,薛东前*,马蓓蓓,宋永永   

  1. (陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 陕西 西安 710119)
  • 出版日期:2023-03-20 发布日期:2023-04-19

Spatio-temporal Process of Population Shrinkage in Rural China Over the Past 70 a And Its Effect on Water and Land Resources

DONG Chao-yang, XUE Dong-qian, MA Bei-bei, SONG Yong-yong   

  1. (School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China)
  • Online:2023-03-20 Published:2023-04-19

摘要: 乡村人口收缩是人类社会发展的必然过程,是缓解乡村人地关系、实现乡村地域系统高质量发展的关键议题。通过界定乡村人口收缩的概念与识别方法,利用计量统计和空间分析方法,以31个省域为空间单元,基于常住和户籍两种口径,分析1950~2020年中国乡村人口收缩的时空演化规律,及其对水土资源利用的空间效应。结果表明:(1)全国乡村常住人口、户籍人口收缩分别于1996、2011年进入全面爆发期,且前者已于2011年步入全面爆发期的平稳期。(2)分省区乡村常住人口收缩分布演化呈现由“沿边-沿江-沿海”局部向全域扩张,而乡村户籍人口收缩分布演化呈现为从北向南扩张至全域的过程。(3)分省区乡村常住人口、户籍人口收缩等级由以轻度为主逐渐转变为以中度为主,且提升演化均表现为由东部沿海向中西部内陆延伸。(4)2010~2020年分省区乡村常住人口、户籍人口收缩对水土资源利用影响的空间异质性存在差异,其中乡村人均耕地变化受乡村常住人口收缩的空间影响最强且空间异质性最显著。(5)在对水土资源利用的空间效应中,分省区乡村常住人口收缩对乡村生活用水增长的抑制和农业用水下降的促进具有时空滞后性,且效应显著区分别为南方地区和北方地区;乡村常住人口、户籍人口收缩致使乡村人均建设用地增长,效应显著区分别集中在西北地区和西南地区。

Abstract: Rural population shrinkage is an inevitable process of human social development, and is a key issue in alleviating the rural man-land relationship, as well as achieving high-quality development of rural territorial systems. By defining the concept and identification method of rural population shrinkage, the paper analyze the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of China's rural population shrinkage from 1950 to 2020 and its spatial effects on the utilization of water and soil resources by using a series of statistical and spatial analysis methods, taking 31 provinces as spatial units and based on two calibers of permanent residence and registered residence. It is found as follows. (1) At the national scale, rural permanent population and registered population shrinkage enter the full-blown period in 1996 and 2011, respectively, with the former entering the stable period of the full-blown period in 2011. (2) At the provincial scale, the evolution of rural permanent population shrinkage present a expansion from the "along the border-along the Yangtze river-along the coast" areas to the whole region, while the shrinkage evolution of rural registered population show an expansion path from north to south. (3) The grade of rural permanent and registered population shrinkage in provinces gradually change from mainly mild to mainly moderate, and the elevated evolution all present an extension from the eastern coast to the central and western inland. (4) From 2010 to 2020, there are differences in the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the shrinking of the rural permanent population and registered population on the utilization of water and land resources in provinces. Among them, the change of rural per capita farmland is most strongly influenced by the rural permanent population shrinkage and have the most significant spatial heterogeneity. (5) In the spatial effects on the utilization of water and land resources, the inhibition of the growth of rural domestic water and the promotion of the decline of agricultural water by the rural permanent population shrinkage in provinces exist a spatial and temporal lag, and the significant effect areas are southern China and northern China respectively. The shrinkage of rural permanent population and registered population has led to the growth of rural per capita construction land, with significant effects concentrated in the northwest China and southwest China respectively.


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