1961~2010年江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201603018

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用我国江浙沪地区26个气象站1961~2010年夏季(6~8月)逐日最高气温资料,选择导致死亡率突然增加而确定的高温热浪指标,研究了江浙沪地区高温热浪日数、频次和强度的时空分布特征。结果表明江浙沪地区是高温热浪天气的高发区,高温热浪天气存在显著的地理差异。江浙沪地区平均高温热浪日数、频次和强度随时间的变化趋势极为相似:20世纪60年代至80年代前期呈现减少(弱)趋势,80年代后期呈现增多(强)趋势。总体上看,江浙沪地区受高温热浪袭击时间越来越长,频率越来越高。近50a江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪天气呈南转的趋势。高温热浪天气受全球变暖与城市热岛效应的共同影响而逐渐加剧。

关键词: 江浙沪地区, 高温热浪, 时空变化, 频率, 强度

Abstract: Heatwaves are significant environmental hazard which can cause increased deaths and emergency hospital admissions, particularly among vulnerable groups such as elderly people, young children and patients with chronic diseases. As the climate change continues, the frequency, intensity, duration and extent of heatwaves are likely to increase in the future. Under the control of the subtropics high in summer, the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region, as one of the most advanced economic and most densely populated places, has become the frequent zone of summer heatwaves in our country. Based on the summer (from June to August) daily highest temperature data of 26 meteorological stations and the indexes chosen on the significantly increase in mortality, this paper conducted a statistical analysis on the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of days, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region from 1961 to 2010. The results show that Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region is a high-risk areaof heatwaves in our country, where the heatwaves weather exist significantly geographical differences. The high values of the heatwaves day numbers, frequency and intensity located in the middle and southwest of Jiangsu Province and west of Zhejiang Province. The tendencies of average heatwaves days frequency and intensity in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region are very similar. Generally, the heatwaves days, frequency and intensity showed a trend of decrease (weaken) from the 1960s to the early 1980s, and showed a trend of increase (strengthen) from the late 1980s to the first decade of this century. Overall, the days, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region have significantly increased and strengthened. Nearly 50 years, there showed the decline of the tendency coefficient for the heatwaves days, frequency and intensity in the middle of Jiangsu Province, which was the high-value region of the heatwaves, and showed rise of the tendency coefficient in the south of Jiangsu Province and east of Zhejiang Province, which was the low-value region of the heatwaves. So, the heatwaves weather in summer displayed a trend of gradually shifting to the south over the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region. Heatwaves, affected by global warming and urban heat island, gradually intensified during the last 50a in Jiangsu- Zhejiang-Shanghai Region. The study followed should pay close attention to the heatwaves formation and change mechanism, such as the impaction of urban heat island and subtropics high on the temporal-spatial distribution of heatwaves.

Key words: Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region, heatwave, temporal-spatial change, frequency, intensity

中图分类号:

P467

李琪, 苏欢, 史雨涵, 王连喜, 吴东丽. 1961~2010年江浙沪地区夏季高温热浪时空变化特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(03): 506-513.

LI Qi, SU Huan, SHI Yu-han, WANG Lian-xi, WU Dong-li. TEMPORAL-SPATIAL CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER HEATWAVES IN JIANGSU-ZHEJIANG-SHANGHAI REGION DURING 1961-2010[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(03): 506-513.

参考文献

[1] 郭维栋, 马柱国, 姚永红. 近50年中国北方土壤湿度的区域演变特征[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(S):84-90.[GUO W D, MA Z G, YAO Y H. Regional characteristics of soil moisture evolution in Northern China over Recent 50 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(S):84-90.]
[2] 徐金芳, 邓振镛, 陈敏. 中国高温热浪危害特征的研究综述[J]. 干旱气象, 2009, 27(2):163-167.[XU J F, DENG Z Y, CHEN M. A summary of studying on characteristics of high temperature and heat wave damage in China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2009, 27(2):163-167.]
[3] Climate change 2007-the physical science basis:Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[4] Tobías A, de Olalla P G, Linares C, et al. Short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona, Spain[J]. International journal of biometeorology, 2010, 54(2):115-117.
[5] Smoyer-Tomic K E, Kuhn R, Hudson A. Heat wave hazards:an overview of heat wave impacts in Canada[J]. Natural hazards, 2003, 28(2-3):465-486.
[6] Ding T, Qian W H. Geographical patterns and temporal variations of regional dry and wet heatwave events in China during 1960-2008[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 28:322-337.
[7] 郑有飞, 丁雪松, 吴荣军, 等. 近50年江苏省夏季高温热浪的时空分布特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012, 21(2):43-50.[ZHENG Y F, DING X S, WU R J, et al. Temporal and spatial feature analyses of summer high temperature and heat wave in Jiangsu Province in past 50 years[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(2):43-50.]
[8] Kuglitsch F G, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, et al. Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960[J]. Geophysical Research letters, 2010, 37(4), 379-384.
[9] Ding T, Qian W H, Yan Z W. Changes in hot days and heatwaves in China during 1961-2007[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(10):1452-1462.
[10] 叶殿秀, 尹继福, 陈正洪, 等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(1):15-20.[YE D X, YIN J F, CHEN Z H, et al. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of summer heatwaves in China in 1961-2010[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(1):15-20.]
[11] 陈敏, 耿福海, 马雷鸣, 等. 近138年上海地区高温热浪事件分析[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(2):597-607.[CHEN M, GENG F H, MA L M, et al. Analyses on the heat wave events in Shanghai in recent 138 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(2):597-607.]
[12] 许遐祯, 郑有飞, 尹继福, 等. 南京市高温热浪特征及其对人体健康的影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 2011, 30(12):2815-2820.[XU X Z, ZHENG Y F, YIN J F, et al. Characteristics of high temperature and heat wave in Nanjing City and their impacts on human health[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2011, 30(12):2815-2820.]
[13] 吴荣军, 郑有飞, 刘建军, 等. 长江三角洲主要城市高温灾害的趋势分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2010, 19(5):56-63.[WU R J, ZHENG Y F, LIU J J, et al. Trand analysis of high temperature disaster in large cities of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2010, 19(5):56-63.]
[14] 胡豪然, 李跃清. 近50年来川渝地区夏季高温及严重干燥事件分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(7):832-838.[HU H R, LI Y Q. On high temperature and severe dry event of summer over Sichuan and Chongqing Region in last 50 years[J]. Resources of Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2010, 19(7):832-838.]
[15] 宋连春, 肖风劲, 叶殿秀. 气象灾害影响及风险评估理论与实践[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2012:64-74.[SONG L C, XIAO F J, YE D X. The theory and practice of meteorological disasters impact and risk assessment[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2012:64-74.
[16] 张文. 近百年来气候突变与极端事件的检测与归因的初步研究[D]. 扬州:扬州大学硕士学位论文, 2007.[ZHANG W. preliminary research on the detection and attribution of abrupt climate change and extreme events over the past century[D]. Yangzhou:Master Dissertation of Yangzhou University, 2007.]
[17] 董庆林. 东北地区近50年来极端气候事件时空变化特征[D]. 长春:东北师范大学硕士学位论文, 2011.[DONG Q L. Temporal-Spatial variations of extreme climate events of Northeast China in the last 50 years[J]. Changchun:Master Dissertation of Northeast Normal University, 2011.]
[18] 翟盘茂, 潘晓华. 中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(S):1-10.[ZHAI P M, PAN X H. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over Northern China during the second half of the 20th century[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(S):1-10.]
[19] Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D et al. Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes, Asheville, NC, USA, 3-6 June 1997, Breakout Group C:Temperature Indices for Climate Extremes. Clim. Change, 1999, 42:31-41.
[20] 施能, 黄先香, 杨扬. 1948-2000年全球陆地年降水量场趋势变化的时空特征[J]. 大气科学, 2003, 27(6):971- 982.[SHI N, HUANG X X, YANG Y. Spatiotemporal features of the trend variation of global land annual rainfall fields from 1948-2000[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, 27(6):971- 982.]
[21] 王颖, 施能, 顾骏强, 等. 中国雨日的气候变化[J]. 大气科学, 2006, 30(1):162-170.[WANG Y, SHI N, GU J Q, et al. Climatic variations of wet days in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2006, 30(1):162-170.]
[22] 郭渠, 李瑞, 周浩, 等. 我国三峡库区高温天气的变化分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2012, 21(11):1409-1416.[GUO Q, LI R, ZHOU H, et al. Change analysis of high temperature in the Three Gorges Area[J]. Resources of Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2012, 21(11):1409-1416.]
[23] 王喜全, 龚晏邦. "城市干岛"对北京夏季高温闷热天气的影响[J]. 科学通报, 2010, 55(11):1043-1047.[WANG X Q, GONG Y B. The impact of an urban dry island on the summer heat wave and sultry weather in Beijing City[J]. Chinese Sci Bull, 2010, 55(11):1043-1047.]
[24] 杨续超, 陈锋, 祝炜平, 等. 城市化对浙江省夏季极端高温事件的影响[J]. 热带气象学报, 2014, 30(4):719-726.[YANG X C, CHEN F, ZHU W P, et al. Urbanization effects on observed change in summer extreme heat events over Zhejiang Province[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 30(4):719-726.]
[25] 王君, 严中伟, 李珍近, 等. 近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J]. 科学通报, 2013, 58(33):3464-3470.[WANG J, YAN Z W, LI Z, et al. Impact of urbanization on changes in temperature extremes in Beijing during 1978-2008[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013, 58(33):3464-3470.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed