长江流域资源与环境 >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (07): 1405-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201807015

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

近56 a来中国东部地区雨涝事件时空演变特征

孔锋,孙劭,王一飞,吕丽莉   

  1. (1.清华大学公共管理学院,北京 100084; 2.中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081;3.中国气象局发展研究中心,北京 100081;4.中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2018-07-20 发布日期:2018-11-09

Temporal and Spatial Variation Pattern of Waterlogging Events in Eastern China in Recent 56 Years

KONG Feng1,2,3,4, SUN Shao4, WANG Yifei2, LU Lili2,3   

  1. (1.School of Public Policy and Mangement,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China;2. China Meteorological Administration Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3. China Meteorological Administration Development Research Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4. National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China
  • Online:2018-07-20 Published:2018-11-09

摘要: 采用1961~2016年1 638站的雨涝次数和雨涝日数年值数据,利用多种数理统计方法,诊断中国东部地区雨涝事件时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)在时间上,1961~2016年中国东部地区的年总雨涝次数和雨涝日数均在波动中呈现出增加趋势。在年代际变化上,1990s的雨涝次数和雨涝日数最多,而1960s~1980s,中国东部地区的雨涝次数和雨涝日数均呈减少趋势。中国东部地区年雨涝次数和雨涝日数存在6 a和30 a的周期振荡特征,并在1991年发生突变。(2)在空间上,1961~2016年中国东部地区气候态和各年代的雨涝次数和雨涝日数主要集中分布在华南、云南西部和南部、江西北部、浙江南部、福建北部、湖南和重庆交界地区、四川北部和辽宁东部地区。(3)在变化趋势和波动特征空间分布上,1961~2016年中国东部地区雨涝次数和雨涝日数在东南沿海地区呈明显增加趋势,而1961~2016年中国东部雨涝次数和雨涝日数波动特征则呈东南低-西北高的空间分异格局。

Abstract: Under the background of global climate change, extreme precipitation shows an increasing trend in many regions. Disasters associated with extreme precipitation are also increasing. In recent years, waterlogging disaster incidents in multiple city in the Eastern China shoued an increasing trend. Waterlogging disaster has caused serious economic loss of property, which seriously affected the sustainable development of society. In this research, we uses 1 638 stations dataset in waterlogging events frequency and days, and a variety of statistical methods, to diagnose the spatial and temporal variation pattern of waterlogging events in the Eastern China from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that: The waterlogging events frequency and days showed an increasing trend in the Eastern China from 1961 to 2016. In the decadal variation, the waterlogging events frequency and days were the most in 1990s, and presented an decreasing trend from 1960s to 1980s. The waterlogging events frequency and days had 6 years and 30 years periodic oscillation characteristics in the Eastern China from 1961 to 2016 and mutation occurred in 1991. The waterlogging events frequency and days in the Eastern China from 1961 to 2016 mainly concentrated in Southern China, Western and Southern Yunnan, Northern Jiangxi, Southern Zhejiang, Northern Fujian, Hunan and Chongqing border region, Northern Sichuan and Eastern Liaoning regions. The waterlogging events frequency and days showed significant increasing trend in the southeast coastal region, and fluctuations characteristics of the waterlogging events frequency and days presented spatial pattern with low in the southeast and high in northwest. In the future. we still need further diagnosis temporal variation characteristics of waterlogging events by taking a variety of data and methods. Our study showed that the change of waterlogging events is most likely the result of human activities and climate change action. Therefore, a variety of measures must be taken to effectively deal with flood disasters.

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