关键词:  , 水环境系统脆弱性；DPSIRM；变权模型；灰色云模型；江苏省

Abstract: Water environmental system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water resource utilization and eco-environment,  by inherent mechanism study of water environmental system,  an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established,  which comprehensively takes the influences including resources,  environment,  economy and society into consideration. On that basis,  weight-varying gray cloud model is put forward. The model is used to evaluate the water environmental system vulnerability of Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2014. In conclusion,  from 2004 to 2014,  the vulnerability index of the was increased rapidly,  rising from 47.056 to 63.210. In 2004,  the stayed at IV grade. After 2004,  the water environmental system vulnerability downgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level,  and it shows an improvement trend. Then this paper analyzes the impact degree of each subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability,  the result shows that,  from 2004 to 2014,  the influence of impact subsystem and responses subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability is increasing. On the contrary,  the influence of pressure subsystem and management subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability presents a downward tendency. The influence of other subsystems on water environmental system vulnerability is maintained at a certain level with minor fluctuation.

Key words: water environmental system vulnerability, DPSIRM, weight-varying model, gray cloud model, Jiangsu province