长江流域资源与环境 >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (03): 517-529.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201903003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江三角洲区域发展差距时空演变驱动因素研究

闫东升1,2,王  晖 2,3,孙  伟2*   

  1. (1. 南京大学经济学院,江苏 南京 210093;2. 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏 南京 210008;3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049)
  • 出版日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2019-03-22

Research on Driving Factors Evolution of Regional Development Gap in the Yangtze River Delta

YAN Dong-sheng 1,2, WANG Hui 2,3, SUN Wei 2   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geography Science, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Scineces, Nanjing 210008, China;3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
  • Online:2019-03-20 Published:2019-03-22

摘要: 基于人口经济增长弹性、重心、地理集中度和不一致指数等方法,在研究2000~2015年长江三角洲人口与经济协同演变规律基础上,从人口与经济协同演变的角度,采用空间计量方法探究不同时期区域发展差距驱动因素。研究发现:在发展环境与政策演变影响下,区域人口与经济集聚格局也发生了变化,二者重心距离的缩小表征了总体发展差距的缩小。城市对比发现,区域经济集中度呈现“Z”字形格局而人口集中度南北差异显著;人口与经济不一致指数呈现相对稳定的“核心-边缘”格局,2000~2015年演变表现为发达城市的增加和欠发达城市的下降;这些都表征了区域发展的显著差异和向均衡状态的演变趋势。不同时期区域发展差距影响因素存在一定差异,但总体呈现市场力量的趋强和政府影响的弱化;普通面板回归高估了多数影响因素的效应,空间溢出效应的下降也在一定程度上说明了区域发展向均衡状态的转变。

Abstract: Regional development gap is one of the key academic issues for economic researchers. Although to some degree it favors to factor flow and resource allocation, long-term and over-huge disparity may weaken the cooperative efficiency between regions. With expanding regional development gap, the way of narrowing the gap has also become the attentive focus of the society. Based on methods of population-economy growth elasticity, center of gravity, geographic concentration and inconsistent index, this paper examines the coordinated evolution law of the population-economy of Yangtze river delta within 2000-2015, and through this perspective explores the driving factors of regional development gap at different periods using spatial panel model. Results show that: the agglomeration pattern of regional population-economy changes responding to the evolution of development environment and policy. The approaching gravity center of pop and economy indicates the gradual narrowing development gap. Economic concentration shows a “Z” shape, while population concentration shows significant north-south difference. Inconsistent index of the population-economy exhibits relatively stable pattern of “core-edge” with the phenomenon of increasing developed cities and decreasing less developed cities, which respectively indicates the significant differences in regional development as well as the evolution of equilibrium trend. Driving factors of regional development gap vary in different periods, overall, the market force strengthens and government influence is weakening. Ordinary panel regression overestimates the effect of many influencing factors, and the declining spillover effects indicates the transition of regional development towards equilibrium. This paper selects one of China’s economic powerhouses-Yangtze River Delta as study area, aiming at offering scientific reference for regional coordinated development.

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