鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201507019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为揭示鄱阳湖流域旱涝变化规律,预测未来变化,搜集整理了鄱阳湖流域地方志、奏折等古文献记载的旱涝记录,根据灾害现象、灾害后果、救灾情况等综合研判旱涝等级。对1160~1950s旱涝频次序列进行了变化周期分析。采用了R/S方法分析了年代际旱涝频次的Hurst指数,结合变化周期分析结果,对1950s以后鄱阳湖流域的旱涝频次变化趋势进行预测,采用基于1951~2010年器测降水量的SPI指数进行验证。研究结果表明:1160~1940s鄱阳湖流域及各子流域的干旱、洪涝频次呈波动变化,周期性变化明显,干旱、洪涝的3~6个年代周期段在整个时段内均非常显著,通过了95%的信度检验;鄱阳湖流域及各子流域的年代际干旱频次的Hurst指数普遍在0.7~0.8之间,洪涝在0.8~0.9之间。预测1950s后鄱阳湖流域年代际旱涝频次整体变化将呈阶段性上升趋势,经验证预测结果与实况较为吻合。

关键词: 文献, 代用资料, 旱涝, R/S分析, Hurst指数

Abstract: Using the historical documents from 1160 to 1950, the characteristics of floods and droughts in the Poyang Lake basin are studied. Firstly, the flood and drought disasters were classified, according to the description of historical documents. Secondly, by using the method of wavelet analysis, the method of correlative dimension and the method of fractal dimension of time, the fractal dimension of flood and drought disaster of Poyang Lake were studied. Thirdly, Hurst index of decadal floods and droughts was calculated by using the R/S analysis method. Combined with the results of trend analysis and wavelet analysis, the flood and drought of Poyang Lake were predicted and verified by using the SPI index. The conclusions are as follows: 1. the proxy data of the Poyang Lake basin inevitable has some missing data during the long period because of various reasons. In the social unrest periods, the data missing rate maybe even higher. It will have poor reliability for the analysis of the proxy data as a whole because of the missing data. So the proxy data would be smoothed to reduce the uncertainty. Literature proxy data on flood record rate have certain continuity between adjacent periods, analysis through the periodic variations of the smoothed data sequences, with better credibility, to analyze and estimate the change trend of the sequence of the stage, has certain scientific significance. 2. From 1160 to 1940s, the intensity and frequency of flood and drought in the Poyang lake basin and sub-basin showed a trend of fluctuations and had an obvious characteristic of cyclic changes, 3-6 decades and passed 95% reliability analysis. 3. The drought has the period of quasi-3-6 decades, and the flood has the quasi-3-6 decades also. 4. The Hurst indexes of drought ranged from 0.7 to 0.8, while the indexes of flood ranged from 0.8 to 0.9. The flood and drought time series have the nearly linear fractal characteristics. 5. According to the historical data, the frequency of flood and drought are predicted to show a rising trend. The predicted results are matched with the observation facts. It means the R/S analysis method can be used in the prediction of floods and droughts in the Poyang Lake Basin.

Key words: Historical document, Proxy data, Drought/Flood, R/S analysis, Hurst Index

中图分类号:

P467

王怀清, 殷剑敏, 孔萍, 占明锦. 鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(07): 1214-1220.

WANG Huai-qing, YIN Jian-min, KONG Ping, ZHAN Ming-jin. VARIATION OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD OVER THE LAST MILLENNIUM IN POYANG LAKE BASIN BY R/S ANALYSIS[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(07): 1214-1220.

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