长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (5): 1042-1057.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202305014

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型的三峡库区碳储量时空变化及其定量归因

毛永发1,3, 周启刚2,3*, 王陶1,3, 罗泓然1,3, 伍龙江1,3   

  1. (1.重庆工商大学环境与资源学院,重庆 400067;2.重庆工商大学公共管理学院,重庆 400067;3.生态环境空间信息数据挖掘与大数据集成重庆市重点实验室,重庆 401320)
  • 出版日期:2023-05-20 发布日期:2023-05-19

Spatial-temporal Variation of Carbon Storage and Its Quantitative  Attribution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Coupled  With PLUS-InVEST Geodector model

MAO Yong-fa1,3, ZHOU Qi-gang2,3, WANG Tao1,3, LUO Hong-ran1,3,WU Long-jiang1,3   

  1. (1. College of Environment and Resources, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China; 
    2. School of Public Administration, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China; 
    3. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Big Data Integration for Ecology and Environment, Chongqing 401320, China)
  • Online:2023-05-20 Published:2023-05-19

摘要:  探明区域长时期陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化及其影响因素对于碳中和目标实现具有重要的理论与现实意义。研究耦合PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型,探究三峡库区1990~2035年不同情景下碳储量时空变化规律,并从土地利用变化以及自然-社会经济复合关系角度定量揭示其影响碳储量变化归因。结果表明:(1)1990~2020年三峡库区碳储量表现为“减少-增加-减少”的波动性,整体减少6.66 Tg,减幅为1.25%,其中耕地大面积转移至建设用地是导致碳储量减少的主要原因;(2)1990~2035年三峡库区碳储量空间分布与土地利用变化具有高度一致性,其空间异质性较为显著,总体呈现出“东高西低,南低北高且库首>库腹>库尾”的分布特征;(3)2035年自然发展情景和生态保护情景碳储量较2020年分别减少7.53和0.37 Tg,生态保护情景较自然发展情景能显著降低库区碳储量损失;(4)影响碳储量时空变化因素较为显著,其中土地利用变化是其主导因子,其次则为温度、人口密度、高程和土壤类型,且各因子交互作用均对碳储量变化解释力增强。研究可为库区碳库管理以及碳储功能的可持续发展提供科学参考。

Abstract: It is of theoretical and practical significance to explore the spatial and temporal changes of carbon stocks in regional terrestrial ecosystems over long periods of time and their influencing factors to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. This study couples the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model to investigate the spatial and temporal changes of carbon stocks in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area under different scenarios from 1990 to 2035, and to quantitatively reveal the attribution factors affecting the changes of carbon stocks from the perspectives of land use changes and natural-socio-economic complex relationships. The results show that (1) the carbon stock in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area shows a fluctuation of “decrease-increase-decrease” from 1990 to 2020, with an overall decrease of 6.66 Tg, or 1.25%, among which a large area of arable land is transferred to construction land as the main reason for the decrease of carbon stock; (2) The spatial distribution of carbon stocks in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1990 to 2035 is highly consistent with land use changes, and its spatial heterogeneity is significant, showing the distribution characteristics of “high in the east and low in the west, low in the south and high in the north, and head of the reservoir > belly of the reservoir > tail of the reservoir”. (3) The carbon storage of the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario in 2035 will be reduced by 7.53 Tg and 0.37 Tg respectively compared with the year 2020, and the ecological protection scenario can significantly reduce the carbon storage loss in the reservoir area compared with the natural development scenario; (4) The factors affecting the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage are significant, among which land use change is the dominant factor, followed by temperature, population density, elevation and soil type, and the interaction of all factors increases the explanatory power of carbon storage changes. This study can provide scientific reference for the management of carbon pools in the reservoir area and the sustainable development of carbon storage function.

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