关键词: 耕地, 动态变化, 驱动因子, 江苏省

Abstract:

According to the difference between different origin cultivated land data,the paper modifies the data series from 1949 to 2006.By introducing the change rate and gravity center of cultivated land,the paper studies the change process of cultivated land and spatial difference in Jiangsu Province nearly 60 years,then uses the correlation analysis and the factorial analysis to discuss the main driving forces leading to quantity change of cultivated land,and establishes the multiple regression model of quantity change.The results indicate that the change of cultivated land has experienced by an increasesudden reductionslow reductionrapid reduction process;the cultivated land in Subei coastal plain area,central Lixiahe shallowbillabong plain area and NingZhenYang low hills area has increased,but in Yangtze River delta plain area it has drastically reduced;the gravity center of cultivated land has moved to the regions where there are more reserve resources and less contradiction between human and land.The population growth,the progress of science and technology in agriculture,the economic development and the agricultural restructuring are the main driving forces.The research forecasts that total quantity of cultivated land will reach 45449×104 hectare in Jiangsu Province by 2020,per person 0053 hectare.Protecting the limited cultivated land,it must transform the way of land utilization and implement the strict protection policy.

Key words: cultivated land, change, driving forces, Jiangsu Province