基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201509019

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (09): 1577-1583.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201509019

基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例

孙鸿鹄^1,2, 程先富^1,2, 戴梦琴^1,2, 王祥^1,2, 康海迪^1,2

1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽芜湖 241003;
2. 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室, 安徽芜湖 241003

收稿日期:2014-12-16 修回日期:2015-03-13 出版日期:2015-09-20
作者简介:孙鸿鹄(1991~),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为洪涝灾害恢复.E-mail:sunhonghu2013@sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41271516);安徽师范大学研究生科研创新项目(2014yks090)

Study on the influence factors and evaluation index system of regional flood disaster resilience based on dematel method-taking chaohu basin as a case

SUN Hong-hu^1,2, CHENG Xian-fu^1,2, DAI Meng-qin^1,2, WANG Xiang^1,2, KANG Hai-di^1,2

1. School of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241003, China;
2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu, 241003, China

Received:2014-12-16 Revised:2015-03-13 Online:2015-09-20
Contact: 程先富,E-mail:xianfucheng@sina.com E-mail:xianfucheng@sina.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 影响洪涝灾害恢复力的因素众多且相互关联,识别和区分这些影响因素,找到因素间互相影响程度和因果关系,对于明确洪涝灾害恢复力关键因素,快速找到需要改善的因素具有重要意义。通过分析灾害恢复力的内涵,从自然维、社会维、经济维、技术维、管理维5个维度构建区域洪涝灾害恢复力的影响因素指标体系,应用DEMATEL方法分析区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素之间的关系,并以巢湖流域为例凝练出适合该区域的洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,结果表明,一级指标中自然维、经济维对其他因素影响最为显著,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、土地因子、地形因子对其他影响因素的影响最大;而一级指标中经济维和社会维与其他因素关系最为密切,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、区域经济实力、土地因子处于核心的位置。从整体影响输出上看,一级指标中原因因素共有2个,分别为自然维、经济维,且以经济维为最,二级指标中原因因素有11个,涉及五个维度,包括所有自然维中因素,并以地形因子、政府财政支撑能力、灾害政策法规为重。一级指标中结果因素有3个,分别为管理维、技术维、社会维;二级指标中共有12个,以管理维中的因素为主,相比于原因因素,通过改善结果因素可以更直接的提高区域洪涝灾害恢复力的水平。

关键词: 洪涝灾害恢复力, 评价指标体系, DEMATEL, 因素识别, 巢湖流域

Abstract: The influencing factors of flood disaster resilience are numerous and interconnected. To identify and distinguish these influencing factors, and find the degree of influence and causality among the factors is of great significance to clarify the key factors of flood disaster resilience, and to quickly find the factors that need to be improved. Through the analysis of the connotation of resilience of disaster, we constructed an index system of influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience from five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology, management. We appled DEMATEL to analyze the relationship among the influencing factors of flood disaster resilience, and took Chaohu Basin as a case to refine the index system suitable for evaluation of this regional flood disaster resilience.The results showed that, the influence of natural dimension and economic dimension in the first level indexes have the most significant influence on the other factors, government financial support ability, land factor, terrain factor in the second level indexes have the largest influence on the other factors; in first level indexes the relationship between economy,society and other factors are the most close, and in second level indexes government financial support ability, strength of regional economy, land factor are in the core position; from output of the overall impact, there are two causal factors in first level indexes-nature, economy, and economic impact is of maximum, there are eleven causal factors in the second level indexes, involving five dimensions and including all factors in natural dimension, and the impacts of terrain factor, government financial support ability, disaster policies and regulations are the most important, the other three factors in first level indexes are reason-oriented factors, including management, social, technology, there are twelve factors belonging to reason-oriented factors, giving priority to the factors in management dimension, compared with causal factors, they can improve the level of regional flood disaster resilience by improving the reason-oriented factors more directly.

Key words: flood disaster resilience, evaluation index system, DEMATEL, factors identification, Chaohu Basin

中图分类号:

孙鸿鹄, 程先富, 戴梦琴, 王祥, 康海迪. 基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(09): 1577-1583.

SUN Hong-hu, CHENG Xian-fu, DAI Meng-qin, WANG Xiang, KANG Hai-di. Study on the influence factors and evaluation index system of regional flood disaster resilience based on dematel method-taking chaohu basin as a case[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(09): 1577-1583.

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