城镇化进程中的江苏水资源承载力研究——基于组合赋权和升半Γ型分布函数

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201611008

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (11): 1697-1703.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201611008

城镇化进程中的江苏水资源承载力研究——基于组合赋权和升半Γ型分布函数

马海良^1,2, 施陈玲¹, 王蕾¹

1. 河海大学低碳经济研究所, 江苏常州 213022;
2. 江苏省"世界水谷"与水生态文明协同创新中心, 江苏南京 211100

收稿日期:2016-02-23 修回日期:2016-05-14 出版日期:2016-11-20
作者简介:马海良(1979~),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为水资源经济与环境规制.E-mail:hilima@vip.sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目：绿色水资源利用效率的空间异质性及其与新型城镇化的耦合（41301620）；国家自然科学基金项目：社会网络关系嵌入下小型农田水利农户参与供给研究（41501126）；中央高校业务基金项目：海绵城市建设的水资源安全保障研究（2016B09714）

THE RESEARCH OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE PROCESS OF URBANIZATION IN JIANGSU——BASED ON COMBINATION OF EMPOWERMENT AND HALF LITER OF Γ DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

MA Hai-liang^1,2, SHI Chen-ling¹, WANG Lei¹

1. Institute for Low Carbon Economy of Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China;
2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China

Received:2016-02-23 Revised:2016-05-14 Online:2016-11-20
Supported by:
Natural Science Foundation of China: the Coupling of Spatial Heterogeneity of Green Water Resources Utilization Efficiency and New Urbanization(41301620);Natural Science Foundation of China: Research on theSupplyof Small Water Conservancy Farmers Participation Underthe Social Network Relationship(41301620);Fundamental Research Fund for the Central University: Water Resources Security of Sponge Urban Construction(2016B09714)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水资源承载力评价是把水资源利用和生态环境问题综合考虑的一种研究手段，其结果可以用来清晰判断一个区域经济社会的发展潜力。在层次分析法和变异系数法组合赋权的基础上，运用基于PSO优化的升半Γ型分布指数，对2003~2013年江苏省的水资源承载力进行评估。结果表明，太湖蓝藻事件爆发是促进江苏水资源承载力提高的重要转折点，2003~2008年江苏水资源承载力处于Ⅱ级承载力水平，均值为0.414，2009年起提升至Ⅲ级水平，此后承载力水平虽略有波动，但始终处于Ⅲ级的最高状态。对比江苏城镇化进程，认为注重两型社会和生态文明建设的城镇化进程可以较大幅度提升水资源的承载力。据此，提出通过供给侧改革转变经济发展模式、全员参与推进节水型社会建设以及统筹协调加强太湖流域管理等对策。

关键词: 江苏, 水资源承载力, 组合赋权, 升半Γ型分布函数

Abstract: Water resources carrying capacity evaluation is a very significant research method which comprehensively takes both water resource utilization and ecological environment issues into consideration. Its evaluation results can be used to clearly determine the status of regional economic and social sustainable development. On the basis of combination of empowerment with Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP) and variation coefficient method, water resources carrying capacity from 2003 to 2013 of Jiangsu Province was assessed and analyzed by using half-liter of Γ Distribution Index which optimized with PSO in this paper. In conclusion, from 2003 to 2013, the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangsu province was slightly increased with minor fluctuation during the past ten years, rising from 0.396 to 0.461. From 2003 to 2007, the water resources carrying capacity stayed at Ⅱ grade level and the mean of water resources carrying capacity was 0.441. After 2009, the water resources carrying capacity upgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level, butit shows a deterioration trend because of the unstable situation of the outbreak of algae in Taihu Lake. The results showed that the outbreak of algae in Taihu Lake of Jiangsu in 2007 was an important turning point in promoting the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangsu, which aroused wide governmental and public attention. At the same time, the authorities of Jiangsu province documented and executed many important policies, documents as well as water conservancy projects concerning water environment protection, such as Division of Surface Water (environment) Functional Areas of Jiangsu Province and Suggestions on the Pollutant Carrying Capacity and Limited Amount of Pollutant Emission of Surface Water (Environment) Functional Areas of Jiangsu Province, so as to curb the regional water problems more scientific and efficient and provide more guidance to improve water quality. Through the construction of resource-economical and environment-friendly society and ecological civilization, water resources problems have been relieved and several evaluation indexes have been greatly improved. For instance, from 2003 to 2013, the rate of water quality reaching standard in water function zones increased from 30.23% to 56.1% and the COD emission per ten thousand industrial output value decreased from 1.98 kg every ten thousand yuan to 0.63 kg every ten thousand yuan. By comparing with the urbanization process of Jiangsu province, it can be concluded that the construction of two-oriented society and ecological civilization can help contribute to the promotion of water resources carrying capacity greatly. Finally, based on the results of analysis, three countermeasures were proposed to help promote the water resources carrying capacity, namely, transforming the economic development mode through supply-front reform, promoting the construction of water saving and ecological society with full participation of the whole society and enhancing coordination and advancing cooperation with different apartments and surrounding regions in curbing and managing the water pollution or problems in the Taihu Lake Basin.

Key words: Jiangsu, water resource carrying capacity, combination of empowerment, half liter of Γ distribution function

中图分类号:

F062.1

马海良, 施陈玲, 王蕾. 城镇化进程中的江苏水资源承载力研究——基于组合赋权和升半Γ型分布函数[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(11): 1697-1703.

MA Hai-liang, SHI Chen-ling, WANG Lei. THE RESEARCH OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE PROCESS OF URBANIZATION IN JIANGSU——BASED ON COMBINATION OF EMPOWERMENT AND HALF LITER OF Γ DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(11): 1697-1703.

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