秦岭南部地区农业气候资源的变化及其对油菜的影响

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201706011

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 秦岭南部地区地形及气候条件复杂，作为油菜主要种植区之一，研究其农业气候资源的变化特征及其对油菜的影响，可以为该区有效利用农业气候资源、合理安排农事活动提高油菜生产提供实践参考。以1960~2014年秦岭南部33个站点的逐日气象数据和近25a各省市统计年鉴资料，通过滑动平均、线性倾向估计、灰色关联分析等方法，研究秦岭南部农业气候资源的时空变化特征及对油菜产量的影响。结果表明：（1）近55a来，秦岭南部地区油菜生长季内平均气温和≥5℃积温呈上升趋势，平均速率分别为0.2、29.3℃/10 a，冻害指数、降水量、开花期降水量和相对湿度与日照时数都呈减少趋势，平均每10 a分别减少0.3、14.8 mm、1.4 mm、0.6%、32.2 h。（2）近55a来研究区油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温的多年平均空间分布都表现为由西南向东北方向递减，冻害指数的空间变化与二者相反，表明越冬期极端最低气温值在空间上由西南向东北逐渐减小；其水资源指标多年平均空间分布由南向北递减，日照时数则由西南向东北递增。（3）1960~2014年秦岭南部油菜生长季内平均气温与≥5℃积温在空间上均呈极显著的增加趋势，研究区西部变化幅度较小，东部变化幅度较大，冻害指数的空间变化趋势与二者相同；水资源与日照时数在空间上均呈极显著的减少趋势，只有少数站点表现为极显著的增加趋势，而日照时数在研究区东部变化幅度相对较大，其余区域变化幅度相对较小。总体上，平均气温和≥5℃积温高值区的变化幅度小，低值区变化幅度大，其他指标与之相反。（4）近25a来秦岭南部油菜气候产量呈不明显的上升趋势，平均速率为3.79 kg/（a·hm²），其空间变化幅度差异大，且大部分站点的变化趋势均不显著；由关联度得作用于各区域油菜气候产量的主要影响因子存在差异。各农业气候资源指标的变化幅度越大，对油菜单产的可能影响相对较大。

关键词: 农业气候资源, 秦岭南部, 时空变化, 油菜, 关联度, 气候产量

Abstract: The conditions of terrain and climate are complex in southern Qinling Mountains one of the main planting area of rape. Studying the effect on the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources, can contribute to the effective use of climate resources, reasonable arrangements for farming activities of rapeseed production. Based on the daily meteorological data of 35 stations in 1960–2014 in southern Qinling Mountains and nearly 25 years of provincial statistical yearbook, we analyzed the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in southern Qinling Mountains and the influence on the rape production using the moving average, linear trend estimation, grey correlation analysis methods. The results showed that:(1) In the past 55 years, average temperatures and ≥ 5°C temperature showed an extremely significant increasing trend, the average rate was 0.2 and 29.3°C/10a. The freezing index, precipitation, flowering period of precipitation and relative humidity and sunshine hours showed decreasing trends, with average reduction of 0.3, 14.8 mm, 1.4 mm, 0.6%, and 32.2h for every 10a, respectively. (2) The average spatial distribution of average temperature and ≥ 5°C temperature were decreasing from southwest to northeast, and the freezing injury index and spatial distribution showed an opposite trend, indicating that winter extreme minimum temperature from southwest to northeast gradually decreased. The average spatial distribution of water resource index decreased from south to north, while sunshine hours increased from southwest to northeast. (3) The average temperature and ≥ 5°C temperature showed a significant increasing trend. A relative small changing amplitude was observed in the west, while a relative large one was observed in the east of the region. Similar spatial variation was observed for the freezing index. water resources and sunshine hours had a significant decreasing trend, only a few sites showed a significant increasing trend, the sunshine hours in the eastern part of the study area changed significantly, the area change rate was relatively small. On the whole, for average temperature and ≥ 5°C temperature, small changing ranges were present in the high value area of the agricultural climate resource index, while large changing ranges were present in the low value area. (4)In recent 25 years in southern Qinling Mountains the rape climate yield upward trend was not obvious, the average rate of 3.79 kg/(a·hm²), the spatial amplitude difference is big, and the change trend of most of the site were not significant; different main influencing factors by the correlation function in each region for meteorological yield of rape, and the greater the change range of the agricultural climate resource index, the greater the impact on the yield of rape.

Key words: agricultural climate resources, southern Qinling Mountains, temporal and spatial variation, rape, correlation, meteorological yield

中图分类号:

P467

王水霞, 殷淑燕, 赵芮芮, 周亚利. 秦岭南部地区农业气候资源的变化及其对油菜的影响[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(06): 882-893.

WANG Shui-xia, YIN Shu-yan, ZHAO Rui-rui, ZHOU Ya-li. CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL CLIMATE RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN QINLING MOUNTAINS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON RAPE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(06): 882-893.

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