关键词: 耕地变化, 驱动因子, 主成分分析, 绍兴市

Abstract:

Because of the remarkable change in cultivated land in welldeveloped southeast littoral areas, it is of great importance for us to analyze the trend in change of cultivated land and its main driving forces in order to achieve a sustainable economic development in these areas.By choosing Shaoxing City as a typical area, the trend in the change of cultivated land was analyzed with temporal and spatial differences identified. As a result of the principal component analysis and a multiple stepwise regressive analysis, the main driving forces affecting arable land changes were then discussed. The spatialtemporal features of cultivated land change in Shaoxing were notable, and the cultivated land has decreased year by year. Moreover, the reduction in plowland of Shaoxing in recent years was mainly due to the rapid development of economy, the improvement of people's lives and the increase of capital input, that is to say, the marketoriented agricultural restructuring and city construction have occupied the majority of cultivated land. The analytical results and conclusions of this paper will not only provide scientific basis for the rational use of cultivated land and their effective protection for the sustainable development in Shaoxing city, but also provide an important reference for further study on plowland change in the welldeveloped littoral areas of southeast China.

Key words: cultivated land change, driving factors, principal component analysis, Shaoxing City