关键词: 生态足迹, 动态预测, 指标体系, 偏最小二乘算法, VIP 值

Abstract:

Dynamic prediction research on ecological footprint(EF) provides the making of strategy and policies for regional sustainable development with scientific and theoretical basis.However，it is still at an exploratory stage.In this paper，taking Wuhan City as an example，based on calculation of the long time series of EF from 1978 to 2004，an indicator system of socioeconomic system was established and a EF dynamic prediction model was built by using the partial least square regression(PLS).The mechanism that each indicator influences the EF was analysed by using the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value.Results demonstrated that the EF of Wuhan City in the “11th FiveYear” plan period showed an upward trend，while the EF per capita would be 2.810 5 hm2 at the end of “11th FiveYear” plan period，higher than the global ecological threshold ( the EF per capita is 2.200 0 hm2).According to the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value，the population，energy consumption and the tertiary industry were the most important factors.Recommendations on how to achieve the targets of “11th FiveYear” Plan in Wuhan City were proposed.It was showed that bringing scientific progress contribution and energy consumption into the indicator system would make up for the disavantage of EF concept that ignors the social，economic，technological factors in quantitative measurement.What′s more，it was more accurate and precise to evaluate the influence of each indicator on the EF change by using the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value.The research made further perfection and improvement on the EF dynamic prediction.〖

Key words: ecological footprint, dynamic prediction, indicator system, partial least square, VIP value〖