湖北省土地利用减碳增效系统仿真及结构优化研究

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201610007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 土地利用变化是引起碳排放的重要原因之一，土地经济效益是利用土地的目标之一，如何通过优化土地利用结构实现土地利用减碳增效是值得研究的重要问题。基于系统结构与功能相互作用的视角，梳理复杂系统内变量间的反馈关系，运用系统动力学（SD）进行建模，将约束条件纳入到多目标规划（MOP）中，实现MOP与SD模型整合，进行系统仿真并得出优化后2020年湖北省土地利用结构。结果显示，利用SD-MOP模型能够实现减碳增效目标下土地利用结构优化，与2008年真实值相比，耕地、林地、牧草地及建设用地分别增加了0.33×10⁴、30.17×10⁴、0.08×10⁴和16.37×10⁴ hm²，其他农用地及未利用地分别减少7.23×10⁴、33.15×10⁴ hm²；与无约束SD单模型仿真相比，土地利用碳排放量减少了58×10⁴ t，经济效益年增长率维持在3.58%，优化方案具有可行性。SD-MOP模型优化的土地利用结构符合区域可持续发展要求，兼顾了土地利用碳减排和经济效益增长的双重目标，能为区域土地资源优化配置提供参考。

关键词: 低碳, 土地利用, SD-MOP模型, 仿真, 优化

Abstract: Land use changes are among the main factors that induce carbon emissions. One of the goals of land use is to pursue the benefits. It's important to optimize land use structure for achieving both carbon reduction and increasing efficiency. Based on the perspective of the interaction between system structure and function, in this paper we explored the feedbacks among the variables in the subsystems of carbon reduction, efficiency increasing of land use. Using the system dynamic to build a simulation model for the system, we put the constraint condition into the multi-objective programming model (MOP), combined the model of MOP and SD into one model, and acquired optimized land-use structure of Hubei Province in 2020 through system simulation. The result showed that the SD-MOP model can be used to optimize the land use structure under the conditions of carbon emission reduction and efficiency increase. Compared with the data of 2008, cultivated land, woodland, grassland and construction land increase by 3.3 thousand ha, 301.7 thousand ha, 0.8 thousand ha and 163.7 thousand ha, respectively. On the other hand, other agricultural lands and unutilized lands decreased by 72.3 thousands ha and 331.5 thousands ha, respectively. In contrast to SD model without constraints, land use carbon emission reduced by 580 thousand tons, the annual growth rate of economic efficiency was maintained at 3.58%, showing that the scheme is feasible. Optimization of land use structure based on the SD-MOP model can meet the requirements of regional sustainable development and take into account the dual goals of land use carbon emission reduction and economic benefit growth, which can provide reference for the optimal allocation of regional land resources.

Key words: low-carbon, land use, system dynamic-multi-objective programming model, simulation, optimization

中图分类号:

F301.2

徐磊, 董捷, 张安录. 湖北省土地利用减碳增效系统仿真及结构优化研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(10): 1528-1536.

XU Lei, DONG Jie, ZHAGN An-lu. STUDY ON SIMULATION AND STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION OF LAND USE CARBON REDUCTION AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT SYSTEM OF HUBEI PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(10): 1528-1536.

参考文献

[1] 游和远, 吴次芳.土地利用的碳排放效率及其低碳优化-基于能源消耗的视角[J].自然资源学报, 2010, 25(11):1875-1886.[YOU H Y, WU C F. Carbon emission efficiency and low carbon optimization of land use:based on the perspective of energy consumption[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(11):1875-1886.]
[2] 赵荣钦, 黄贤金, 钟太洋, 等.区域土地利用结构的碳效应评估及低碳优化[J].农业工程学报, 2013, 29(17):220-229.[ZHAO R Q, HUANG X J, ZHONG T Y, et al. Carbon effect evaluation and low-carbon optimization of regional land use[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013, 29(17):220-229.]
[3] 赵荣钦, 陈志刚, 黄贤金, 等.南京大学土地利用碳排放研究进展[J].地理科学, 2012, 32(12):1473-1480.[ZHAO R Q, CHEN Z G, HUANG X J, et al. Research progresses of land use carbon emission in Nanjing university[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12):1473-1480.]
[4] 韩骥, 周翔, 象伟宁.土地利用碳排放效应及其低碳管理研究进展[J].生态学报, 2016, 36(4):1152-1161.[HAN J, ZHOU X, XIANG W L. Progress in research on land use effects on carbon emissions and low carbon management[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(4):1152-1161.]
[5] ALI G, NITIVATTANANON V. Exercising multidisciplinary approach to assess interrelationship between energy use, carbon emission and land use change in a metropolitan city of Pakistan[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012, 16(1):775-786.
[6] BAE J, RYU Y. Land use and land cover changes explain spatial and temporal variations of the soil organic carbon stocks in a constructed urban park[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2015, 136:57-67.
[7] CHUAI X W, HUANG X J, WANG W J, et al. Land use, total carbon emissions change and low carbon land management in Coastal Jiangsu, China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014, 103:77-86.
[8] 王桂波, 南灵.陕西省土地利用碳排放效应时空差异分析[J].资源与产业, 2012, 14(1):124-130.[WANG G B, NAN L. Temporal-spatial variance of carbon emission effect in Shaanxi's land use[J]. Resources & Industries, 2012, 14(1):124-130.]
[9] 俞超, 张丽琴, 唐殿明.基于清单算法的湖北省土地利用碳排放效应和趋势分析[J].水土保持研究, 2014, 21(4):168-172.[YU C, ZHANG L Q, TANG D M. Analysis on effects of land use on carbon emission and the trend in Hubei province based on IPCC inventory[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014, 21(4):168-172.]
[10] 吴仕海, 张安明, 曹伟, 等.基于能源消费的重庆市土地利用碳排放效应分析[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 40(1):65-72.[WU S H, ZHANG A M, CAO W, et al. On carbon emission effects of land use change based on energy consumption of Chongqing city[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2015, 40(1):65-72.]
[11] 许恒周, 郭玉燕, 陈宗祥.土地市场发育、城市土地集约利用与碳排放的关系-基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].中国土地科学, 2013, 27(9):26-29.[XU H Z, GUO Y Y, CHEN Z X. The relationship between land market development, urban land intensive use and carbon emission:an empirical study based on provincial panel data in China[J]. China Land Science, 2013, 27(9):26-29.]
[12] 张俊峰, 张安录, 董捷.土地集约利用与土地利用碳排放的关系研究-以武汉城市圈为例[J].农业现代化研究, 2013, 34(6):717-721.[ZHANG J F, ZHANG A L, DONG J. Study on relationship of intensive land use and carbon emission-a case study of Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2013, 34(6):717-721.]
[13] 张苗, 陈银蓉, 周浩.基于面板数据的土地集约利用水平与土地利用碳排放关系研究-以1996~2010年湖北省中心城市数据为例[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(9):1464-1470.[ZHANG M, CHEN Y R, ZHOU H. Study on the relationship of the level of land intensive use and land use carbon emission based on panel data-a case study of central cities in Hubei province from 1996 to 2010[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015, 24(9):1464-1470.]
[14] 刘海猛, 石培基, 王录仓, 等.低碳目标导向的兰州市土地利用结构优化研究[J].中国土地科学, 2012, 26(6):55-61.[LIU H M, SHI P J, WANG L C, et al. Optimizing land use structure for low carbon target:a case study in Lanzhou of Gansu province[J]. China Land Science, 2012, 26(6):55-61.]
[15] 曾永年, 王慧敏.以低碳为目标的海东市土地利用结构优化方案[J].资源科学, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.[ZENG Y N, WANG H M. Optimization of land use structure for low-carbon targets in Haidong city, Qinghai plateau[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(10):2010-2017.]
[16] 姜超, 程久苗.基于SD-MOP整合模型的城市土地资源优化配置方案研究[J].科技信息, 2013(13):136-137, 167.[JIANG C, CHENG J M. The optimal allocation of urban land resources on SD-MOP integrated model[J]. Science & Technology Information, 2013(13):136-137, 167.]
[17] 王其藩.系统动力学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社, 2009.
[18] 李旭.社会系统动力学:政策研究的原理、方法和应用[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2009.
[19] MALLICK R B, RADZICKI M J, ZAUMANIS M, et al. Use of system dynamics for proper conservation and recycling of aggregates for sustainable road construction[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2014, 86:61-73.
[20] 黎孔清.低碳经济导向的区域土地利用评价与结构优化研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学博士学位论文, 2013.[LI K Q. Evaluation and structural optimization of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land-use[D]. Wuhan:Doctor Dissertation of Huazhong Agricultural University, 2013.]
[21] 邹锐, 郭怀成, 刘磊.基于目标偏离容忍水平的多目标交互式决策方法[J].系统工程学报, 1998, 13(3):41-47.[ZOU R, GUO H C, LIU L. A new method based on the objective-deviation-tolerance-level for multi-objective decision making[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 1998, 13(3):41-47.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed